Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive

Psephos: Adam Carr's Election Archive
Australian federal election 2019

List of seats in pendulum order

See these seats in alphabetical order



Very safe Liberal/National

  • Bradfield, NSW (Liberal over Labor 21.0%)
  • Curtin, WA (Liberal over Labor 20.7%)
  • Farrer, NSW (Liberal over Labor 20.5%)
  • Mallee, Vic (Nationals over Labor 19.8%)
  • Gippsland, Vic (Nationals over Labor 18.2%)
  • Mitchell, NSW (Liberal over Labor 17.8%)
  • Wentworth, NSW (Liberal over Labor 17.7%)
  • Maranoa, Qld (Nationals over Labor 17.5%)
  • Berowra, NSW (Liberal over Labor 16.4%)
  • Riverina, NSW (Nationals over Labor 16.4%)

  • Safe Liberal/National

  • Mackellar, NSW (Liberal over Labor 15.7%)
  • Cook, NSW (Liberal over Labor 15.4%)
  • Groom, Qld (Liberal over Labor 15.3%)
  • Parkes, NSW (Nationals over Labor 15.1%)
  • O'Connor, WA (Liberal over Labor 15.0%)
  • Moncrieff, Qld (Liberal over Labor 14.5%)
  • North Sydney, NSW (Liberal over Labor 13.6%)
  • Kooyong, Vic (Liberal over Labor 12.8%)
  • Goldstein, Vic (Liberal over Labor 12.7%)
  • Forrest, WA (Liberal over Labor 12.6%)

  • Fairly safe Liberal/National

  • Calare, NSW (Nationals over Labor 11.8%)
  • Lyne, NSW (Nationals over Labor 11.6%)
  • McPherson, Qld (Liberal over Labor 11.6%)
  • Fadden, Qld (Liberal over Labor 11.2%)
  • Durack, WA (Liberal over Labor 11.1%)
  • Tangney, WA (Liberal over Labor 11.1%)
  • Warringah, NSW (Liberal over Labor 11.1%)
  • Fairfax, Qld (Liberal over Labor 11.0%)
  • Moore, WA (Liberal over Labor 11.0%)
  • Hume, NSW (Liberal over Labor 10.2%)
  • Bennelong, NSW (Liberal over Labor 9.7%)
  • Wright, Qld (Liberal over Labor 9.6%)
  • Hughes, NSW (Liberal over Labor 9.3%)
  • Wannon, Vic (Liberal over Labor 9.3%)
  • Fisher, Qld (Liberal over Labor 9.2%)
  • Ryan, Qld (Liberal over Labor 8.8%)
  • Hinkler, Qld (Nationals over Labor 8.4%)
  • Wide Bay, Qld (Nationals over Labor 8.3%)

  • Marginal Liberal/National

  • Menzies, Vic (Liberal over Labor 7.9%)
  • Aston, Vic (Liberal over Labor 7.6%)
  • Monash, Vic (Liberal over Labor 7.6%)
  • Flinders, Vic (Liberal over Labor 7.2%)
  • Bowman, Qld (Liberal over Labor 7.1%)
  • Canning, WA (Liberal over Labor 6.8%)
  • Deakin, Vic (Liberal over Labor 6.3%)
  • Stirling, WA (Liberal over Labor 6.1%)
  • Brisbane, Qld (Liberal over Labor 6.0%)
  • Sturt, SA (Liberal over Labor 5.8%)
  • Reid, NSW (Liberal over Labor 4.7%)
  • Casey, Vic (Liberal over Labor 4.5%)
  • Leichhardt, Qld (Liberal over Labor 4.0%)

  • Very marginal Liberal/National

  • Pearce, WA (Liberal over Labor 3.6%)
  • Swan, WA (Liberal over Labor 3.6%)
  • La Trobe, Vic (Liberal over Labor 3.5%)
  • Bonner, Qld (Liberal over Labor 3.4%)
  • Chisholm, Vic (Liberal over Labor 3.4%)
  • Dawson, Qld (Nationals over Labor 3.3%)
  • Boothby, SA (Liberal over Labor 2.8%)
  • Page, NSW (National over Labor 2.3%)
  • Hasluck, WA (Liberal over Labor 2.1%)
  • Dickson, Qld (Liberal over Labor 2.0%)
  • Petrie, Qld (Liberal over Labor 1.6%)
  • Banks, NSW (Liberal over Labor 1.4%)
  • Robertson, NSW (Liberal over Labor 1.1%)
  • Swing needed for Labor majority: 1.1%


  • Flynn, Qld (Nationals over Labor 1.0%)
  • Gilmore, NSW (Liberal over Labor 0.7%)
  • Capricornia, Qld (Nationals over Labor 0.6%)
  • Forde, Qld (Liberal over Labor 0.6%)
  • Corangamite, Vic (Liberal over Labor 0.0%)



  • Very marginal Labor

  • Herbert, Qld (Labor over Liberal 0.0%)
  • Cowan, WA (Labor over Liberal 0.7%)
  • Longman, Qld (Labor over Liberal 0.8%)
  • Lindsay, NSW (Labor over Liberal 1.1%)
  • Dunkley, Vic (Labor over Liberal 1.3%)
  • Macnamara, Vic (Labor over Liberal 1.3%)
  • Griffith, Qld (Labor over Liberal 1.4%)
  • Braddon, Tas (Labor over Liberal 1.5%)
  • Macquarie, NSW (Labor over Liberal 2.2%)
  • Isaacs, Vic (Labor over Liberal 2.3%)
  • Eden-Monaro, NSW (Labor over Liberal 2.9%)
  • Perth, WA (Labor over Liberal 3.3%)
  • Bendigo, Vic (Labor over Liberal 3.9%)

  • Marginal Labor

  • Lyons, Tas (Labor over Liberal 4.0%)
  • Moreton, Qld (Labor over Liberal 4.0%)
  • Richmond, NSW (Labor over Nationals 4.0%)
  • Hotham, Vic (Labor over Liberal 4.2%)
  • Dobell, NSW (Labor over Liberal 4.8%)
  • Jagajaga, Vic (Labor over Liberal 5.0%)
  • Bass, Tas (Labor over Liberal 5.3%)
  • McEwen, Vic (Labor over Liberal 5.3)
  • Lilley, Qld (Labor over Liberal 5.8%)
  • Solomon, NT (Labor over CLP 6.1%)
  • Greenway, NSW (Labor over Liberal 6.3%)
  • Burt, WA (Labor over Liberal 7.1%)
  • Ballarat, Vic (Labor over Liberal 7.4%)
  • Fremantle, WA (Labor over Liberal 7.5%)
  • Parramatta, NSW (Labor over Liberal 7.7%)

  • Fairly safe Labor

  • Blair, Qld (Labor over Liberal 8.0%)
  • Lingiari, NT (Labor over CLP 8.1%)
  • Hindmarsh, SA (Labor over Liberal 8.2%)
  • Werriwa, NSW (Labor over Liberal 8.2%)
  • Barton, NSW (Labor over Liberal 8.3%)
  • Corio, Vic (Labor over Liberal 8.3%)
  • Macarthur, NSW (Labor over Liberal 8.3%)
  • Kingsford Smith, NSW (Labor over Liberal 8.6%)
  • Bean, ACT (Labor over Liberal 8.9%)
  • Adelaide, SA (Labor over Liberal 9.0%)
  • Oxley, Qld (Labor over Liberal 9.1%)
  • Maribyrnong, Vic (Labor over Liberal 9.4%)
  • Holt, Vic (Labor over Liberal 9.9%)
  • Shortland, NSW (Labor over Liberal 9.9%)
  • Franklin, Tas (Labor over Liberal 10.7%)
  • Paterson, NSW (Labor over Liberal 10.7%)
  • Makin, SA (Labor over Liberal 10.9%)
  • Rankin, Qld (Labor over Liberal 11.3%)
  • Brand, WA (Labor over Liberal 11.4%)
  • Fenner, ACT (Labor over Liberal 11.6%)

  • Safe Labor

  • McMahon, NSW (Labor over Liberal 12.1%)
  • Hunter, NSW (Labor over Liberal 12.5%)
  • Canberra, ACT (Labor over Liberal 13.2%)
  • Cunningham, NSW (Labor over Liberal 13.3%)
  • Kingston, SA (Labor over Liberal 13.5%)
  • Whitlam, NSW (Labor over Liberal 13.7%)
  • Newcastle, NSW (Labor over Liberal 13.8%)
  • Lalor, Vic (Labor over Liberal 14.4%)
  • Gellibrand, Vic (Labor over Liberal 14.7%)
  • Sydney, NSW (Labor over Liberal 15.3%)
  • Bruce, Vic (Labor over Liberal 15.7%)

  • Very safe Labor

  • Fowler, NSW (Labor over Liberal 17.5%)
  • Watson, NSW (Labor over Liberal 17.6%)
  • Spence, SA (Labor over Liberal 17.9%)
  • Gorton, Vic (Labor over Liberal 18.3%)
  • Chifley, NSW (Labor over Liberal 19.2%)
  • Blaxland, NSW (Labor over Liberal 19.5%)
  • Calwell, Vic (Labor over Liberal 20.1%)
  • Scullin, Vic (Labor over Liberal 20.4%)
  • Fraser, Vic (Labor over Liberal 20.6%)


  • Non-two-party seats

  • Barker, SA (Liberal over NXT 4.7%)
  • Clark, Tas (Independent over Labor 17.8%)
  • Cooper, Vic (Labor over Greens 0.6%)
  • Cowper, NSW (Nationals over Independent 4.6%)
  • Grayndler, NSW (Labor over Greens 15.8%)
  • Grey, SA (Liberal over NXT 2.0%)
  • Higgins, Vic (Liberal over Greens 8.0%)
  • Kennedy, Qld (KAP over Nationals 11.1%)
  • Indi, Vic (Independent over Liberal 4.1%)
  • Mayo, SA (NXT over Liberal 5.5%)
  • Melbourne, Vic (Greens over Labor 19.0%)
  • New England, NSW (Nationals over independent 8.5%)
  • Nicholls, Vic (Nationals over Liberal 5.1%)
  • Wills, Vic (Labor over Greens 4.9%)

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