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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Braddon, Tasmania
Northern Tasmania: Burnie, Devonport, Port Sorrell, Ulverstone, Wynyard
State seats: All of
Braddon
Local government areas: All of Burnie, Central Coast, Circular Head, Devonport, King Island,
Latrobe, Waratah-Wynyard and West Coast
Enrolment at close of rolls: 79,244
1999 republic referendum: No 67.8
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 54.0
Sitting member: Justine Keay (Labor):
Elected 2016. Resigned 2018. Elected 2018 by-election
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 1.4%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 7.5%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 2.6%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 2.2%
2018 by-election Labor majority over Liberal: 2.2%
Status: Very marginal Labor
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Sassafras (77.8), Marrawah (71.9), Irishtown (68.8),
Forest (66.2), Currie (65.4)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Acton (70.5), Waratah (69.4), Montello (68.7), Zeehan (65.0),
Rosebery (64.0)
2016 results
2018 by-election results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Kate Spaulding
United Australia Party |
2. Craig Brakey
Independent |
3. Shane Allan
Fraser Anning's Conservative
National Party |
4. Gavin Pearce
Liberal Party |
5. Sally Milbourne
The Nationals |
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6. Phill Parsons
Australian Greens |
7. Brett Smith
Independent |
8. Justine Keay
Australian Labor Party |
9. Graham Gallagher
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
Candidate websites:
Graham Gallagher
<Justine Keay
a href="http://nationals.org.au/sally-milbourne-to-contest-braddon-for-the-nationals/>Sally Milbourne
Phill Parsons
Gavin Pearce
Kate Spaulding
Division of Braddon
Braddon was created in 1955 when the old seat of Darwin, which had occupied the same area of north-western Tasmania since 1903, was renamed.
The seat has at different times been strongly Labor and strongly anti-Labor, reflecting an electorate which is largely working-class but also
parochial and conservative. Consistent with this, Braddon has the 4th lowest median income level of any seat, and the 3rd lowest level of
non English speaking households. At the same time it has lower-than-average levels of families with dependent children and of dwellings being purchased:
this is a seat of low-income home-owners, not homebuyers.
Labor's strongest area is in Burnie - even in 2013 Labor won five of Burnie's eight booths. The Liberals dominate the rural areas, while the two
parties usually break roughly even in Devonport, Ulverstone and Wynyard. The old mining towns of the west coast, once called "the Gibraltar of
Labor," are now politically marginal.
Sid Sidebottom won Braddon for Labor in 1998. He seemed well-entrenched, but in 2004 he became a victim of Mark Latham's anti-logging forestry
policy, and was defeated by Mark Baker. In 2007 Sidebottom regained the seat, and was a
Parliamentary Secretary in the Rudd-Gillard government. But in 2013 he fell to the large swing against Labor that swept Tasmania in 2013, and was
defeated by Brett Whiteley, a Burnie City Councillor and state MP. Despite Labor's poor standing in state politics in 2016, there was a swing back to
Labor at the 2016 election, and Whiteley was unexpectedly defeated by Labor's Justine Keay.
Justine Keay, Labor MP for Braddon 2016-28 and since the 2018 by-election, was a Labor staffer and Devonport City Councillor before her election. In
early 2018 it became apparent that she had not successfully renounced the British citizenship for which she was potentially eligible
through her late father. Following the High Court's ruling in the case of Senator Katy Gallagher, she resigned in May. The Liberals re-nominated
Whiteley to contest the by-election. Keay was re-elected with her majority unchanged. Despite her success, this remains a key marginal seat.
The Liberal candidate in 2019 will be Gavin Pearce, a beef farmer and small business operator. The Greens candidate is Phill Parsons,
a horticulturalist. The One Nation candidate is Graham Gallagher, a small business owner.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $982 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 20.6% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 84.1% (Australia 66.7%)
Indigenous: 7.5% (Australia 2.8%)
Non-English-speaking households: 3.7% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 15.3% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 36.1% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 9.5% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 25.6% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 26.1% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 11.1% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 31.4% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 28.5% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 24.7% (Australia 32.8%)
Members for Darwin (1903-55) and Braddon (from 1955):
Hon King O'Malley (Lab, ALP) 1903-17
Charles Howroyd (Nat) 1917
Hon William Spence (Nat) 1917b-19
George Bell (Nat) 1919-22
Joshua Whitsitt (CP) 1922-25
Hon Sir George Bell (Nat, UAP) 1925-43
Hon Dame Enid Lyons (UAP, Lib) 1943-51
Aubrey Luck (Lib) 1951-58
Ron Davies (ALP) 1958-75
Hon Ray Groom (Lib) 1975-84
Hon Chris Miles (Lib) 1984-98
Sid Sidebottom (ALP) 1998-2004
Mark Baker (Lib) 2004-07
Hon Sid Sidebottom (ALP) 2007-13
Brett Whiteley (Lib) 2013-16
Justine Keay (ALP) 2016-18, 2018b-
Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:
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