Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive

Adam Carr's Election Archive

Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Fraser, Victoria

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Western Melbourne: Ardeer, Braybrook, Keilor Downs, St Albans, Sunshine
State seats: All of St Albans, parts of Footscray, Kororoit, Niddrie and Sydenham
Local government areas: Parts of Brimbank and Maribyrnong
Enrolment at close of rolls: 109,430

Sitting member: None

2019 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 20.6%

Status: Very safe Labor

  • Statistics and history

  • Candidates in ballot-paper order:

    1. Vinh Van Chau
    United Australia Party
    2. Peter Bain
    Liberal Party
    4. Tony Dobran
    The Great Australian Party
    3. Dr Daniel Mulino
    Australian Labor Party
    5. Rebecca Scorgie
    Australian Greens
    6. Van Tran
    Independent



    Candidate websites:

    Peter Bain
    Dr Daniel Mulino
    Rebecca Scorgie

    Division of Fraser

    Fraser is a new seat created in the western suburbs of Melbourne, as a result of Victoria's rapid growth in recent years. It covers the heartland of Melbourne's working-class and multi-cultural west, based on St Albans and Sunshine. As a result it will be the safest Labor seat in Australia. (Cooper and Grayndler have larger notional two-party majorities, but in those seats Labor is under threat from the Greens.) It will be a heavily working-class, Catholic and ethnic seat, with a very high proportion of voters from non English speaking backgrounds, mainly Vietnamese and Chinese.

    (This Fraser should not be confused with the earlier seat of Fraser, which existed in the ACT from 1974 to 2016. That seat was named for Jim Fraser MP. It was renamed Fenner in 2016 so that a Victorian seat of Fraser could be created following Malcolm Fraser's death in 2015.)

    Fraser has been formed from parts of the old seats of Calwell, Gellibrand, Gorton and Maribyrnong: the latter held by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Shorten could have moved to Fraser had he chosen, but opted to stay in Maribyrnong. After no more than the usual amount of factional bickering, the Labor nomination (which is tantamount to election) went to Dr Daniel Mulino, a member of the Victorian Legislative Council. Mulino was born in Italy and has a PhD in economics from Yale. He has worked as a senior state public servant and as an advisor to Premier Steve Bracks and Treasurer John Lenders. He later worked for Shorten when he was Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations.

    The Liberal candidate is Peter Bain, "an executive in the not for profit sector." The Greens candidate is Rebecca Scorgie, a TAFE Coordinator/Teacher at Victoria University.

    Demographics:

    Fraser is a new seat and no demographic data are available. These data are for the City of Brimbank, which covers much of the same territory.

    Median weekly household income: $1,263 (Australia $1,438)
    People over 65: 13.6% (Australia 15.8%)
    Australian born: 44.9% (Australia 66.7%)
    Ancestry: Vietnamese 13.3%, Chinese 5.4%, Italian 5.4%
    Non-English-speaking households: 62.3% (Australia 22.2%)
    Catholics 31.3% (Australia 22.6%)
    Buddhism: 10.8%
    No religion 16.8% (Australia 29.6%)
    University graduates: 16.0% (Australia 22.0%)
    Professional and managerial employment: 22.8% (Australia 35.2%)
    Employed in manufacturing and construction: 26.3% (Australia 22.9%)
    Paying a mortgage: 34.2% (Australia 34.5%)
    Renting: 26.0% (Australia 30.9%)
    Traditional families: 40.5% (Australia 32.8%)

    Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:




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