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Adam Carr's Election Archive

Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Gilmore, New South Wales

< Gellibrand previous seat | next seat Gippsland >
Return to alphabetical list of seats


New South Wales South Coast: Batemans Bay, Berry, Kiama, Nowra, Ulladulla
State seats: All of South Coast, parts of Bega and Kiama
Local government areas: All of Kiama and Shoalhaven, parts of Eurobodalla
Enrolment at close of rolls: 122,536
1999 republic referendum: No 57.5
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 62.0

Sitting member: Ann Sudmalis (Liberal): Elected 2013, 2016. Retiring 2019

2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.1%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.3%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 2.6%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 0.7%

Status: Very marginal Liberal

Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: South Durras (62.5), Berry (58.4), Nelligen (57.9), Cambewarra (57.7), Terrara (55.9)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Nowra East (61.6), Nowra (59.1), Erowal Bay (58.3), Sanctuary Point (58.7), Nowra South (58.5)
  • 2016 results
  • Statistics and history

  • Candidates in ballot-paper order:

    1. Carmel McCallum
    Australian Greens
    2. Grant Schultz
    Independent
    3. Milton Leslight
    United Australia Party
    4. Fiona Phillips
    Australian Labor Party
    5. Serah Kolukupally
    Christian Democratic Party
    6. Hon Katrina Hodgkinson
    The Nationals
    7. Warren Mundine
    Liberal Party



    Candidate websites:

    Carmel McCallum
    Hon Katrina Hodgkinson
    Warren Mundine
    Fiona Phillips
    Grant Schultz

    Division of Gilmore

    Gilmore was created in 1984, originally as a country seat running inland from the coast to Goulburn. The 1993 redistribution turned it into a coastal seat based on Nowra and Kiama. On those boundaries it was a marginal seat, which Labor won in 1993, but it grew safer for the Liberals after 1996. It is now mainly a farming, tourism and retirement seat, with the country's third-highest proportion of over-65s and low levels of median family income, families with dependent children and dwellings being purchased.

    Joanna Gash, who won Gilmore for the Liberals in 1996, made no impact in Canberra, but was very popular locally and held the seat without difficulty until she retired in 2013. She then arranged for one of her staffers, Ann Sudmalis, to gain Liberal endorsement. This provoked some local opposition, and the result was a 2.7% swing to Labor in a year when the Liberals were winning government. The 2016 redistribution improved the seat for the Liberals by removing the Labor stronghold of Shellharbour and adding Batemans Bay and Moruya, which are politically marginal. Despite this, there was a further 3.1% swing to Labor in 2016, making Gilmore once again a highly marginal seat.

    Ann Sudmalis, Liberal MP for Gilmore since 2013, is a former high school science teacher and company director of a family manufacturing business. She was an electorate officer for Joanna Gash for five years. In September 2018 Sudmalis announced that she would not recontest the seat, citing "branch-stacking, undermining and leaks", which had led to unacceptable delays in her preselection for the 2019 election. (In fact the delays were caused by concerns that she was not an effective MP and was heading for defeat.)

    Local Liberals elected Grant Schultz, a Milton estate agent and son of former Liberal MHR for Hume, Alby Schultz, as the new candidate. But in January it was revealed that Prime Minister Morrison intended installing Warren Mundine, a defector from Labor, as the Liberal candidate. Mundine (who was ALP National President in 2006-07), lives in Sydney and is not a member of the Liberal Party. His imposition on the seat when Gilmore Liberals had already chosen a candidate provoked a local backlash, with Schultz announcing he would run as an independent. The Nationals will also contest the seat, with former state MP and minister Katrina Hodgkinson as their candidate.

    Labor's candidate is Fiona Phillips, a tutor at the University of Wollongong’s Shoalhaven campus, who also ran in 2016. The Greens candidate is Carmel McCallum, a pharmacist.

    Demographics:

    Median weekly household income: $1,038 (Australia $1,438)
    People over 65: 26.7% (Australia 15.8%)
    Indigenous: 5.0% (Australia 2.8%)
    Australian born: 78.8% (Australia 66.7%)
    Non-English-speaking households: 5.8% (Australia 22.2%)
    Catholics 21.3% (Australia 22.6%)
    No religion 29.3% (Australia 29.6%)
    University graduates: 14.1% (Australia 22.0%)
    Professional and managerial employment: 30.3% (Australia 35.2%)
    Employed in manufacturing and construction: 26.0% (Australia 22.9%)
    Employed in agriculture: 2.8% (Australia 3.3%)
    Paying a mortgage: 26.9% (Australia 34.5%)
    Renting: 24.3% (Australia 30.9%)
    Traditional families: 23.8% (Australia 32.8%)

    Members:

    John Sharp (NPA) 1984-93
    Peter Knott (ALP) 1993-96
    Joanna Gash (Lib) 1996-2013
    Ann Sudmalis (Lib) 2013-19

    Boundaries following 2016 redistribution:




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