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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Lyne, New South Wales
North Coast New South Wales: Dungog, Forster, Gloucester, Taree, Wauchope
State seats: All of
Myall Lakes, parts of
Maitland,
Oxley,
Port Macquarie,
Port Stephens and
Upper Hunter
Local government areas: All of Dungog, Gloucester, Great Lakes and Greater Taree, parts of Maitland,
Port Macquarie-Hastings and Port Stephens
Enrolment at close of rolls: 118,865
1999 republic referendum: No 61.6
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 55.3
Sitting member: Hon Dr David Gillespie (Nationals):
Elected 2013, 2016
2007 Nationals majority over Labor: 8.6%
2008 by-election Independent majority over Nationals: 23.9
2010 Independent majority over Nationals: 12.7%
2013 Nationals majority over Labor: 14.8%
2016 Nationals majority over Labor: 11.6%
Status: Fairly safe Nationals
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Hon Phil Costa
Australian Labor Party |
2. Hon Dr David Gillespie
The Nationals |
3. Garry Bourke
United Australia Party |
4. Ryan Goldspring
Fraser Anning's Conservative
National Party |
5. Dean McCrae
Liberal Democrats |
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6. Ed Caruana
Australian Workers Party |
7. Jeremy Miller
Independent |
8. Catherine Zhao
Christian Democratic Party |
9. Stuart Watson
Australian Greens |
Candidate websites:
Hon Phil Costa
Hon Dr David Gillespie
Jeremy Miller
Division of Lyne
Lyne was created in 1949, on the NSW north coast, running from Kempsey to Port Stephens. It has been cut back by
successive redistributions as the coast has grown rapidly, and now consists largely of the Taree and Tuncurry-Forster
areas, with some Maitland suburbs at its southern end. Although it contains a number of farming communities, it is
mainly a tourism and retirement area: only 7.4% of its population are engaged in agriculture, while more than 27% are
aged over 65, the highest proportion of any electorate. This combination gives it the second-lowest median
household income of any electorate. It is also a very monocultural seat, with the second-lowest level of
non English speaking households of any electorate.
Until 2008, Lyne had been held by the Country Party and its successor the Nationals since it was created. Mark
Vaile won it for the Nationals in 1993. He was a minister in the Howard Government and became Leader of the Nationals
and Deputy Prime Minister on the retirement of John Anderson in 2005. He resigned his seat after the 2007 election
defeat, and the by-election was won by Rob Oakeshott, an independent who had been state MP for Port Macquarie since
1996. After the 2010 election Oakeshott joined with Tony Windsor in supporting the minority Gillard Labor
Government. He would have had little hope of retaining Lyne in 2013, and instead chose to retire.
Dr David Gillespie, Nationals MP for Lyne since 2013, was a gastroenterologist and consultant physician, and also
a farmer, before his election. The 2016 redistribution removed Port Macquarie from the seat, and instead
extended it southwards to take in all the rural parts of Paterson, including Dungog, Tuncurry-Forster and some
suburbs of Maitland. The Nationals majority was slightly reduced, but Gillespie easily retained the seat in 2016.
He is now Assistant Minister for Children and Families.
The Labor candidate in 2019 will be Phil Costa, former
MLA for Wollondilly and state minister.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $967 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 27.6% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 5.5% (Australia 2.8%)
Australian born: 83.2% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 3.6% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 20.2% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 23.8% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 11.0% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 29.0% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 26.1% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 7.4% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 27.6% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 22.7% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 23.6% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Jim Eggins (CP) 1949-52
Philip Lucock (CP, NCP) 1952b-80
Bruce Cowan (NCP, NPA) 1980-93
Hon Mark Vaile (NPA) 1993-2008
Rob Oakeshott (Ind) 2008-13
Hon Dr David Gillespie (Nat) 2013-
Boundaries following 2016 redistribution:
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