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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Lilley, Queensland
Northside Brisbane: Aspley, Boondall, Brighton, Chermside, Nundah
State seats: All of
Nudgee, parts of
Aspley,
Clayfield,
Everton,
Sandgate and
Stafford
Local government areas: Parts of Brisbane
Enrolment at close of rolls: 108,615
1999 republic referendum: No 56.4
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 67.7
Sitting member: Hon Wayne Swan (Labor):
Elected 1993. Defeated 1996. Elected 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016. Retiring 2019
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 8.6%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 3.2%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 1.3%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 5.3%
2019 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 5.8%
Status: Marginal Labor
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Tracey Bell-Henselin
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
2. Don Coles
Fraser Anning's Conservative
National Party |
3. Mike Crook
Socialist Alliance |
4. Brad Carswell
Liberal Party |
5. Anika Wells
Australian Labor Party |
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6. John Meyer
Australian Greens |
7. David McClaer
United Australia Party |
Candidate websites:
Brad Carswell
John Meyer
Anika Wells
Division of Lilley
Lilley has existed since 1913, and was originally a rural seat north of Brisbane, based on Gympie. Since 1949
it has been confined to a block of suburbs on Brisbane's northside, based on the Labor strongholds of Nudgee and
Sandgate, but including areas of Liberal strength around Aspley and Nundah. The seat has a stable, ageing population
of mainly low-to-middle income earners, with a very low level of families with dependent children. Since 1949
Lilley has always been a marginal seat, but as with most inner suburban seats, it is gradually improving for Labor.
The Liberals won it in 1996 but lost it again in 1998, and have been unable to regain it despite their gains in
Queensland in 2010 and 2013.
Wayne Swan, Labor MP from 1993 to 1996 and from 1998, is a former Queensland Labor Party State Secretary and
advisor to a number of ministers in the Hawke and Keating governments. He won the seat in 1993, lost it in 1996
and won it back in 1998. Swan was a leading Labor insider who has played key roles in the various leadership
changes over the past decade. He was Treasurer in the Rudd-Gillard Government and Deputy Prime Minister under
Gillard. As Treasurer he played the leading role in Australia's successful response to the Global Financial Crisis in
2008. He resigned in 2013 rather than serve under Rudd and has been on the backbench since. He was elected
ALP National President in 2018, and will retire at the 2019 election.
Labor's new candidate will be Anika Wells, a lawyer with Maurice Blackburn, a leading Labor law firm. Labor's 2016
majority of 5.3% includes a substantial personal vote for Swan, so this is not a seat Labor can take for granted. The
first Liberal candidate, Jim Liu, a registered nurse, resigned in January citing career reasons. He was replaced by
Brad Carswell, an arborist and tree-lopper. The Greens candidate is John Meyer, a professional musician.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,609 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 15.2% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 2.1% (Australia 2.8%)
Australian born: 71.1% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 16.8% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 28.2% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 28.9% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 25.7% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 37.3% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 20.2% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 33.3% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 35.7% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 30.3% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Jacob Stumm (Lib, Nat) 1913-17
Hon George Mackay (Nat, UAP) 1917-34
Sir Donald Cameron (UAP) 1934-37
William Jolly (UAP) 1937-43
James Hadley (ALP) 1943-49
Bruce Wight (Lib) 1949-61
Donald Cameron (ALP) 1961-63
Hon Kevin Cairns (Lib) 1963-72
Frank Doyle (ALP) 1972-74
Hon Kevin Cairns (Lib) 1974-80
Elaine Darling (ALP) 1980-93
Wayne Swan (ALP) 1993-96
Elizabeth Grace (Lib) 1996-98
Hon Wayne Swan (ALP) 1998-2019
Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:
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