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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Casey, Victoria
Outer eastern Melbourne: Belgrave, Lilydale, Monbulk, Mooroolbark, Warburton
State seats: All of
Evelyn, parts of
Croydon,
Eildon,
Monbulk and
Warrandyte
Local government areas: All of Yarra Ranges
Enrolment at close of rolls: 113,324
1999 republic referendum: No 54.5
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 68.1
Sitting member: Hon Tony Smith (Liberal):
Elected 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.9%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.2%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 7.2%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor 6.1%
2019 notional Liberal majority over Labor 4.5%
Status: Marginal Liberal
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Sylvan (66.9), Dixons Creek (65.8), Gruyere (65.5),
Wandin Yallock (63.8), Yarra Glen (63.2)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Belgrave (66.1), Kallista (65.0), Warburton (63.6),
Tecoma (61.7), The Patch (59.5)
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Peter Charleton
Independent |
2. Antony Calabrio
Rise Up Australia |
3. Ross McPhee
Labour DLP |
4. Travis Barker
Animal Justice Party |
5. Wendy Starkey
United Australia Party |
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6. Ryan Clark
Derryn Hinch's Justice Party |
7. Hon Tony Smith
Liberal Party |
8. Bill Brindle
Australian Labor Party |
9. Jenny Game-Lopata
Australian Greens |
10. Jayden O'Connor
The Great Australian Party |
Candidate websites:
Bill Brindle
Jenny Game-Lopata
Hon Tony Smith
Division of Casey
Casey was created in 1969, taking in a stretch of Melbourne's new and fast-growing outer north-eastern suburbs.
During the Whitlam years Casey was the classic "litmus" seat, where Whitlam's appeal to suburban voters on issues
like schools and sewerage had the greatest impact. Since the 1980s, however, this area has become increasingly
wealthy, and voters are more concerned about interest rates - Casey has among the highest levels of traditional
families with children, and of people paying mortgages, of any electorate. Casey also has the highest level of
people working in manufacturing and construction (35.9%) of any seat in Australia. The Liberals dominate in the more
heavily suburban parts of the seat around Lilydale and Mooroolbark, while Labor retains some strength in the Dandenong Ranges
part of the seat.
Tony Smith, Liberal MP for Casey since 2001, worked at the Institute of Public Affairs, a Liberal think-tank,
and as an adviser to Peter Costello, before his election. He was a parliamentary secretary in the last year of
the Howard Government, and was on the opposition front bench from 2007 and 2009. But his career stalled with the
departure of his patron Cosetllo, and he was not included in the Abbott ministry. In August 2015 he was elected
Speaker after the resignation of Bronwyn Bishop, and has successfully restored the standing of the
speakership after her inglorious departure.
The 2018 redistribution has removed Croydon, a strongly Liberal suburb, while adding Labor-inclined
Belgrave and Upwey. These changes have made Casey a more marginal seat, but it would still require a substantial
swing to Labor in Victoria for Smith to be in danger.
The Labor candidate is Bill Brindle, a small business owner. The Greens candidate is Jenny Game-Lopata,
who lectures in music and cultural studies at the National Institute of Circus Arts.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,472 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 15.9% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 77.7% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 10.7% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 19.0% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 40.5% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 15.9% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 28.8% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 35.9% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 2.6% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 47.1% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 15.9% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 37.1% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Hon Peter Howson (Lib) 1969-72
Race Mathews (ALP) 1972-75
Peter Falconer (Lib) 1975-83
Peter Steedman (ALP) 1983-84
Hon Robert Halverson (Lib) 1984-98
Hon Dr Michael Wooldridge (Lib) 1998-2001
Hon Tony Smith (Lib) 2001-
Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:
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