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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Blair, Queensland
West of Brisbane: Brassall, Ipswich, Karalee, Raceview, Rosewood
State seats: All of
Ipswich and
Ipswich West, parts of
Bundamba,
Lockyer,
Moggill,
Nanango and
Scenic Rim
Local government areas: All of Somerset, parts of Brisbane and Ipswich
Enrolment at close of rolls: 113,521
1999 republic referendum: No 74.6
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.0
Sitting member: Hon Shayne Neumann (Labor):
Elected 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.5%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.2%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 5.3%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 9.1%
2019 national Labor majority over Liberal: 8.0%
Status: Marginal Labor
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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 |
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 |
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1. Simone Karandrews
Independent |
2. Peter Fitzpatrick
Fraser Anning's Conservative
National Party |
3. Hon Shayne Neumann
Australian Labor Party |
4. Sharon Bell
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
5. Robert Shearman
Liberal Party |
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 |
 |
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6. Majella Zimpel
United Australia Party |
7. John Quinn
Labour DLP |
8. Michelle Duncan
Australian Greens |
9. John Turner
Independent |
Candidate websites:
Sharon Bell
Michelle Duncan
Hon Shayne Neumann
Robert Shearman
Majella Zimpel
Division of Blair
Blair was created in 1998, from parts of the old seats of Oxley and Longman. It was then a largely rural seat with
parts of western Ipswich. Like many rural or semi-rural seats, it combined a relatively low income level with a very
low level of non English speaking households, a combination which usually indicates conservatism. Blair
attracted national attention at the 1998 election because Pauline Hanson, the extreme right-wing member for Oxley,
elected as a disendorsed Liberal in 1996, stood in Blair for her new One Nation party. She topped the poll on
primaries, but was defeated on preferences by the Liberal Cameron Thompson.
Successive redistributions have put all of
Ipswich into Blair, reducing its rural component and making it weaker for the Liberals. Labor finally won the seat in
2007, and have held it since. The 2018 redistribution has added some Liberal-inclined territory, slightly reducing the
Labor majority.
Shayne Neumann, Labor MP for Blair since 2007, was an Ipswich lawyer before entering politics. He was a parliamentary
secretary in the last year of the Rudd-Gillard Government, and is now Shadow Minister for Immigration and Border
Protection. Having survived the heavy swing against Labor in Queensland in 2010, and won swings towards him in 2013
and 2016, he is now fairly secure in this seat. Labor usually wins every booth in Ipswich, leaving the
Liberals with only the rural towns such as Kilkoy to the north.
The Liberal candidate is Robert Shearman, a businessman and Army veteran. The Greens candidate is Michelle Duncan, whose occupation is not stated. The One Nation candidate
is Sharon Bell, "an Estimating Assistant within the civil/construction industry."
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,303 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 13.1% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 4.5% (Australia 2.8%)
Australian born: 77.8% (Australia 66.7%)
Ancestry: German 6.7%
Non-English-speaking households: 8.4% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 19.3% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 29.3% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 10.6% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 23.2% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 28.6% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 2.6% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 34.4% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 37.1% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 32.6% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Cameron Thompson (Lib) 1998-2007
Hon Shayne Neumann (ALP) 2007-
Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:
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