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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Dobell, New South Wales
New South Wales Central Coast: Bateau Bay, Kanwal, The Entrance, Toukley, Wyong
State seats: All of
Wyong, parts of
Terrigal and
The Entrance
Local government areas: Parts of Gosford and Wyong
Enrolment at close of rolls: 117,359
1999 republic referendum: No 57.5
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 65.7
Sitting member: Emma McBride (Labor):
Elected 2016
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 3.9%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 5.1%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 0.7%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.8%
Status: Marginal Labor
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
1. Aaron Harpley-Carr
United Australia Party |
2. Paula Grundy
Christian Democratic Party |
3. Jilly Pillon
Liberal Party |
4. Scott Rickard
Australian Greens |
5. Emma McBride
Australian Labor Party |
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6. Gregory Stephenson
Independent |
Candidate websites:
Emma McBride
Jilly Pillon
Scott Rickard
Division of Dobell
Dobell was created in 1984, carved out of the seats of Robertson and Shortland. It is a mix of Sydney
exurbia and tourism and retirement centres such as Bateau Bay. It has a high proportion of over-65s,
and a low proportion of people in non English speaking households and of people in professional and managerial
occupations.
Dobell was a fairly safe seat for the rising Labor star Michael Lee until 1996, when he very nearly
lost it in that year's Howard landslide. He recovered in 1998, but in 2001 he was unexpectedly beaten
by the Liberals' Ken Ticehurst. Labor regained the seat in 2007, but soon wished they had not, since the
new Labor member, Craig Thomson, proved a severe embarrassment.
During 2010 it emerged that Thomson had stolen large amounts of money from his former employer, the
Health Services Union, with the connivance of other officials, and had spent the money on, among other
things, prostitutes. Thomson denied the charges, but resigned from the Labor Party and contested Dobell
as an independent in 2013, polling 4% of the vote. In 2014 he was convicted of theft.
His Liberal successor, Karen McNamara, had a margin of only 0.7%, and this was wiped out by the 2016
redistribution, which moved Liberal-voting Terrigal to Robertson, while adding Labor-voting Goroke and
Lake Haven. This was enough to hand the seat back to Labor in 2016.
Emma McBride, Labor MP for Dobell since 2016, was Deputy Director of Pharmacy for the Central Coast
Local Health District and a Wyong Shire councillor before her election.
The Liberal candidate is Jilly Pillon, a small business owner and member of Central Coast Council. The
Greens candidate is Scott Rickard, a union organiser.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,268 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 19.6% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 4.4% (Australia 2.8%)
Australian born: 80.2% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 7.8% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 25.3% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 26.8% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 11.8% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 27.3% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 29.6% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 35.0% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 28.0% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 31.3% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Hon Michael Lee (ALP) 1984-2001
Ken Ticehurst (Lib) 2001-07
Craig Thomson (ALP, Ind) 2007-13
Karen McNamara (Lib) 2013-16
Emma McBride (ALP) 2016-
Boundaries following 2016 redistribution:
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