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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Bass, Tasmania
Northern Tasmania: George Town, Beaconsfield, Launceston, Newnham, Scottsdale
State seats: All of
Bass
Local government areas: All of Dorset, Flinders Island, George Town, Launceston and West Tamar
Enrolment at close of rolls: 76,587
1999 republic referendum: No 62.8
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 61.7
Sitting member: Ross Hart (Labor):
Elected 2016
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 1.0%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 6.7%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.0%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal 6.1%
Status: Marginal Labor
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Dr Tom Hall
Australian Greens |
2. Ross Hart
Australian Labor Party |
3. Susan Woodbury
Animal Justice Party |
4. Bridget Archer
Liberal Party |
5. Todd Lambert
Independent |
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6. Allan Roark
United Australia Party |
7. Carl Cooper
The Nationals |
Candidate websites:
Bridget Archer
Carl Cooper
Dr Tom Hall
Ross Hart
Allan Roark
Susan Woodbury
Division of Bass
Bass has existed since Tasmania was first divided into electorates in 1903, and has always consisted of the city of
Launceston and some surrounding rural areas - it is one of the least changed of the federation seats. The seat has
always been politically marginal and has frequently changed hands: it has had 16 members, the equal-highest number
(with Bendigo and Clark) of any seat. Only three of its 15 previous members have departed undefeated. Its relatively
low income level, which should tip it towards Labor, is offset by its very low level of people born in non English
speaking countries - it is one of Australia's most monocultural seats.
Lance Barnard won Bass in 1954 and was Deputy Prime Minister in the Whitlam government. His successor Kevin
Newman was a minister in the Fraser government. Warwick Smith held the seat twice and was a minister in the
Howard government, before being defeated by Michelle O'Byrne in 1998. In 2004 Mark Latham's anti-logging forestry
policy cost Labor the seat. Michael Ferguson, who defeated O'Byrne, was an outspoken member, but his high profile
was not enough to save him from the anti-government swing in 2007, when he was defeated by Jodie Campbell.
Campbell did not enjoy being an MP and retired in 2010, when Geoff Lyons retained Bass for Labor. He was in turn
defeated Andrew Nikolic in the large swing against Labor that swept Tasmania in 2013.
Nikolic had a distinguished career in the Australian Army and as a public servant in the Department of Defence,
but he did not prove to be a particularly popular MP, and was easily defeated by Labor in 2016.
Ross Hart, Labor MP for Bass since 2016, was a Launceston lawyer before entering politics. He was president of the
Law Society of Tasmania and director of the Northern Tasmania Regional Development Board. His 10% swing in 2016 has
given him a comfortable margin, but Bass always has been and will remain a marginal seat.
The Liberal candidate will be Bridget Archer, the mayor of George Town. The Nationals will also contest the seat,
with Carl Cooper, a teacher and pastoralist, as their candidate. The Greens candidate is Dr Tom Hall, an anaesthetist in
private practice.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,053 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 18.8% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 3.4% (Australia 2.8%)
Australian born: 80.5% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 6.6% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 14.4% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 36.1% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 15.0% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 30.5% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 24.6% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 5.6% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 32.2% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 30.6% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 25.3% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
David Storrer (Prot, Ind) 1903-10
Hon Jens Jensen (ALP, Nat) 1910-19
David Jackson (Nat) 1919-29
Allan Guy (ALP, UAP) 1929-34
Hon Claude Barnard (ALP) 1934-49
Bruce Kekwick (Lib) 1949-54
Hon Lance Barnard (ALP) 1954-75
Hon Kevin Newman (Lib) 1975b-84
Warwick Smith (Lib) 1984-93
Silvia Smith (ALP) 1993-96
Hon Warwick Smith (Lib) 1996-98
Michelle O'Byrne (ALP) 1998-2004
Michael Ferguson (Lib) 2004-07
Jodie Campbell (ALP) 2007-10
Geoff Lyons (ALP) 2010-13
Andrew Nikolic (Lib) 2013-16
Ross Hart (ALP) 2016-
Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:
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