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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Grayndler, New South Wales
Inner Sydney: Asfield, Balmain, Leichhardt, Marrickville, Petersfield
State seats: Parts of
Balmain,
Canterbury,
Heffron,
Newtown,
Summer Hill and
Sydney
Local government areas: All of Leichhardt, parts of Ashfield and Marrickville
Enrolment at close of rolls: 109,645
1999 republic referendum: Yes 64.8
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 79.9
Sitting member: Hon Anthony Albanese (Labor):
Elected 1996, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 24.9%
2010 Labor majority over Greens: 4.2%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 20.3%
2016 Labor majority over Greens: 15.8%
2016 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 22.4%
Status: Safe Labor versus Greens
Status: Very safe Labor versus Liberal
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
1. Majella Morello
Science Party |
2. Derek Henderson
Liberal Party |
3. Paris King-Orsborn
United Australia Party |
4. Jim Casey
Australian Greens |
5. Hon Anthony Albanese
Australian Labor Party |
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6. Gui Dong Cao
Christian Democratic Party |
Candidate websites:
Hon Anthony Albanese
Jim Casey
Derek Henderson
Division of Grayndler
Grayndler was created in 1949, based in Sydney's inner western suburbs centred on Marrickville. Its boundaries have been
changed fairly radically several times since, but in 2010 they returned to something close to their original form. The
2016 redistribution has extended it to take in the Balmain peninsula for the first time. In the 1950s these areas were
still among the poorest parts of urban Australia, verging on being slums. Today this is one of the wealthiest electorates in
Australia, with a young population, a high proportion of graduates, more
than half the population working in professional and managerial occupations and a level of median family income in the top 20%.
Nearly 30% of residents were born in non English speaking countries.
What has not changed is the strength of the Labor vote, although much of it now comes in the form of preferences from the
Greens. In two-party terms, Grayndler is one of the safest Labor electorates in Australia, but the real threat to Labor comes
from the Greens, who now dominate this area at state level. They polled 22% of the vote here in 2016, to Labor's 46%.
The Greens came second in 2010, fell back to third in 2013, and came back to second in 2016.
Past members for Grayndler include Labor veteran and minister Fred Daly, minister Jeannette McHugh and Speaker of the
House Leo McLeay.
Anthony Albanese, Labor MP for Grayndler since 1996, was Assistant General Secretary of the NSW Labor Party and a
senior adviser to NSW Premier Bob Carr before entering Parliament. Albanese is a leader of the Labor Party's left faction.
After serving as a senior minister throughout the Rudd-Gillard Government, he was Deputy Prime Minister for three months
before the 2013 election. After the election he was the Left's candidate for the leadership, but was defeated by Bill
Shorten. He is now Shadow Minister for Tourism, Cities, Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Development.
All through 2018 there was media speculation that Albanese would challenge Shorten's leadership if the opportunity
presented itself. Certainly Shorten's poor personal polling and the shallowness of his support in Caucus left that
possibility open. But Labor's consistent lead in national polling, plus the Labor wins in the July 2018 "super
Saturday" by-elections, ended any prospect of an Albanese challenge before the 2019 election.
The Liberal candidate is Derek Henderson, a retired police officer. Grayndler is always near the top of the Greens' target list, and the 2016 redistribution improved their position by
adding the Greens stronghold of Balmain. Albanese's prestige is such that they are unlikely to bother him, although they
may well win the seat when he retires. Their controversial 2016 candidate, Jim Casey, Secretary of the NSW Fire Brigades Employees’ Union
(and a recent member of the International Socialists), is running again. The Science Party candidate is Majella Morello, a lawyer.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $2,093 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 11.9% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 59.1% (Australia 66.7%)
Ancestry: Chinese 5.0%
Non-English-speaking households: 29.5% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 22.7% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 40.7% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 42.6% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 55.3% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 12.9% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 28.8% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 43.7% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 27.3% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Hon Fred Daly (ALP) 1949-75
Tony Whitlam (ALP) 1975-77
Hon Frank Stewart (ALP) 1977-79
Hon Leo McLeay (ALP) 1979b-93
Hon Jeannette McHugh (ALP) 1993-96
Hon Anthony Albanese (ALP) 1996-
Boundaries following 2016 redistribution:
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