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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Page, New South Wales
Northern New South Wales: Casino, Glenreagh, Grafton, Kyogle, Lismore
State seats: All of
Clarence, parts of
Ballina,
Coffs Harbour and
Lismore
Local government areas: All of Clarence Valley, Kyogle, Lismore and Richmond Valley, parts of Ballina and
Coffs Harbour
Enrolment at close of rolls: 122,833
1999 republic referendum: No 61.2
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.0
Sitting member: Kevin Hogan (Nationals):
Elected 2013, 2016
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 2.4%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.2%
2013 Nationals majority over Labor: 2.5%
2016 Nationals majority over Labor: 2.3%
Status: Very marginal Nationals
Best Nationals booths, two-party vote: Clovass (73.3), Woodenbong (72.5), Leeville (70.2),
Fairy Hill (65.8), Baryulgil (65.0)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Nimbin (86.1), The Channon (82.6), Cawongla (80.9), Rosebank (77.0),
Jiggi (76.3)
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
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1. Fiona Leviny
Independent |
2. Alison Waters
Animal Justice Party |
3. Peter Walker
Christian Democratic Party |
4. John Mudge
United Australia Party |
5. Dan Reid
Australian Greens |
6. Kevin Hogan
The Nationals |
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7. Patrick Deegan
Australian Labor Party |
Candidate websites:
Patrick Deegan
Kevin Hogan
Daniel Reid
Division of Page
Page was created in 1984 from parts of the federation electorates of Richmond and Cowper, and based on the
regional centres of Grafton and Lismore. It has one of the country's lowest levels of median family income,
reflecting its economic base of farming and low-wage tourism jobs, plus its large population of retired
over-65s. Its ageing population is also shown by its low levels of families with dependent children and of
dwellings being purchased. These factors make Page more politically marginal than most rural seats are these
days.
Labor's strongest area is the city of Lismore, where Labor won all of the polling places in 2016. Grafton
and Casino are more marginal. The Nationals win most of the smaller rural centres, but Labor and the Greens dominate the
alternative lifestyle area around Nimbin.
Page's first member was Ian Robinson, a National Party veteran who had held Cowper since 1963. Like many country
members, he stayed on too long, and in 1990 he was unexpectedly defeated by Labor's Harry Woods, who was greatly
helped by the aftermath of the National Party's "Joh for Canberra" fiasco. Woods hung on in 1993, but was predictably
defeated in 1996 by the Nationals candidate, former state minister Ian Causley. Causley had reasonable expectations
of ministerial office in the Howard Government, but was disappointed, and retired in 2007. The seat was then won
by Labor's Janelle Saffin, a teacher and lawyer and former NSW MLC. Saffin was re-elected in 2010 but defeated
by the Nationals in 2013.
Kevin Hogan, Nationals MP for Page since 2013, was a teacher in Casino before his election. He has also worked as a
money market and bond trader and as an investment officer for a superannuation fund.
The 2016 redistribution removed
the Labor-inclined town of Ballina and added more rural areas to the south, increasing the Nationals majority and helping
Hogan defeat an attempt by Saffin to regain the seat at the 2016 election. The new Labor candidate will be Patrick Deegan,
a Casino resident whose occupation is not stated. The Greens candidate is Daniel Reid.
After the removal of Prime Minister
Malcolm Turnbull in August 2018, Hogan announced that he would no longer attend the Coalition party-room and that his vote
could only be guaranteed for supply and confidence motions. He is still listed at the Parliament website as a Nationals
member.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $998 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 22.0% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 5.5% (Australia 2.8%)
Australian born: 82.5% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 5.0% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 20.6% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 29.0% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 13.1% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 29.8% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 23.9% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 10.8% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 29.3% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 26.1% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 24.7% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Hon Ian Robinson (NPA) 1984-90
Harry Woods (ALP) 1990-96
Hon Ian Causley (NPA) 1996-2007
Janelle Saffin (ALP) 2007-13
Kevin Hogan (Nat) 2013-
Boundaries following 2016 redistribution:
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