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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Forde, Queensland
South of Brisbane: Beenleigh, Boronia Heights, Loganholme, Shailer Park, Upper Coomera
State seats: All of
Macalister, parts of
Coomera,
Logan,
Springwood,
Theodore,
Waterford and
Woodridge
Local government areas: Parts of Gold Coast and Logan
Enrolment at close of rolls: 107,272
1999 republic referendum: No 68.7
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.5
Sitting member: Bert van Manen (Liberal):
Elected 2010, 2013, 2016
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 2.9%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.6%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.4%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 0.6%
2019 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 0.6%
Status: Very marginal Liberal
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Carbrook (62.5), Loganholme PPVC (60.5),
Cornubia (60.4), Oxenford PPVC (59.4), Norfolk Village (58.5)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Marsden (68.2), Boronia Heights (63.9), Eagleby South
(62.8), Loganlea (62.4), Waterford West (61.1)
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Ian Bowron
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
2. Kirsty Petersen
Australian Greens |
3. Paul Creighton
United Australia Party |
4. Bert van Manen
Liberal Party |
5. Des Hardman
Australian Labor Party |
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6. Les Innes
Fraser Anning's Conservative
National Party |
Candidate websites:
Des Hardman
Kirsty Petersen
Bert van Manen
Division of Forde
Forde was created in 1984, and was originally located in the southern suburbs of Brisbane. Successive
redistributions have pushed it southwards, and it now has none of its original territory.
On its current boundaries, it is based on outer suburbs such as Shailer Park and Waterford, the satellite town of
Beenleigh and some parts of the Gold Coast hinterland. It has not been significantly altered by the 2018
redistribution.
The suburban parts of Forde are mortgage belt territory, with high levels of families with dependent children
and of dwellings being purchased, and with the usual low level
of people in professional occupations. Labor has some strong areas in Beenleigh and along the northern edge of the
seat in Loganlea and Marsden, while the Liberals dominate the semi-rural areas to the south.
Forde has not been a safe seat for any of its five previous members. Kay Elson held it for the Liberals during
the 11 years of the Howard government before retiring in 2007. She was succeeded by Brett Raguse, who gained a very
big swing. In 2010, the sharp swing against Labor that followed the demise of Kevin Rudd saw Raguse defeated by
Bert van Manen. Van Manen was comfortably re-elected in 2013, despite Labor running former Premier Peter Beatty
as its candidate, but only narrowly re-elected in 2016.
Bert van Manen, Liberal MP for Forde since 2010, was a bank officer and financial adviser before being
elected. He has been an inconspicuous backbencher in Canberra. The Labor candidate is Des Hardman, a
radiographer at Logan Hospital, who ran Van Manen close in 2016. This is now a key marginal seat which Labor needs
to win if it is to gain government. The Greens candidate is Kirsty Petersen, a mediator in family law practice.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,463 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 12.7% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 2.8% (Australia 2.8%)
Australian born: 67.6% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 13.9% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 18.9% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 31.2% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 11.5% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 23.7% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 34.4% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 39.5% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 34.5% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 37.9% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Dr David Watson (Lib) 1984-87
Hon Mary Crawford (ALP) 1987-96
Kay Elson (Lib) 1996-2007
Brett Raguse (ALP) 2007-10
Bert van Manen (Lib) 2010-
Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:
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