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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Cowper, New South Wales
Northern New South Wales: Coffs Harbour, Dorrigo, Kempsey, Nambucca Heads, Port Macquarie
State seats: Parts of
Coffs Harbour,
Oxley and
Port Macquarie
Local government areas: All of Bellingen, Kempsey and Nambucca, parts of Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie-Hastings
Enrolment at close of rolls: 124,507
1999 republic referendum: No 60.6
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.0
Sitting member: Hon Luke Hartsuyker (Nationals):
Elected 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016. Retiring 2019
2007 Nationals majority over Labor: 1.2%
2010 Nationals majority over Labor: 9.3%
2013 Nationals majority over Labor: 11.7%
2016 Nationals majority over Independent: 4.6%
2016 notional Nationals majority over Labor: 12.6%
Status: Marginal Nationals versus Independent
Status: Safe Nationals versus Labor
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Ruth Meads
Christian Democratic Party |
2. Paul Conaghan
The Nationals |
3. Alexander Stewart
United Australia Party |
4. Andrew Woodward
Australian Labor Party |
5. Rob Oakeshott
Independent |
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6. Lauren Edwards
Australian Greens |
7. Kelly Pearce
Animal Justice Party |
8. Allan Green
Independent |
Candidate websites:
Andrew Woodward
Division of Cowper
Cowper has existed since Federation, at one time occupying virtually the whole North Coast of NSW, which in the early
years of the Commonwealth was a remote and thinly settled area. Since 1949 it has been steadily cut back as the North
Coast has grown rapidly, so that it now comprises little more than the tourism and retirement centres of Coffs Harbour
and Port Macquarie and a few adjacent rural areas: once one of the most rural seats in Australia, it now has only 4.9%
of its workforce engaged in agriculture, while 8.5% work in tourism.
Cowper's large retired population means it has the 4th highest proportion of over-65s of any electorate, and this
combined with its rural element give it the 7th lowest median family income level of any electorate. Like most regional seats
Cowper is very monocultural, with no large ethnic or religious minorities.
The Nationals majority in Cowper is seldom very large, but both Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie are reliable for the Nationals.
Labor support comes from some coastal towns, hippy colonies and small sawmilling towns.
Cowper was one of the birthplaces of the Country Party. Sir Earle Page, leader of the party from 1921 to 1939 and
briefly Prime Minister in 1939, was member for Cowper from 1919 to 1961. His defeat in 1961 was one of the great
upsets of Australian electoral history. After the Country Party regained the seat in 1963, it was held for 38 years
by two backbenchers, Ian Robinson and Garry Nehl.
Luke Hartsuyker (pronounced Hartseeker), Nationals MP for Cowper since 2001, was an accountant and small business owner
before his election. He was on the opposition frontbench from 2007 to 2013, and was a junior minister in the Abbott
Government. He was dropped in February 2016 when Barnaby Joyce became Nationals Leader. At the 2016 election he was
opposed by Rob Oakeshott, the former independent MP for Lyne, who held him to a 4.6% majority. He will retire at the 2019
election. The new Nationals candidate will be Paul Conaghan, a Port Macquarie solicitor.
Oakeshott will again contest the seat. With Hartsuyker's retirement, in the current political climate, Oakeshott must be
given a fair chance of winning the seat this time. The Labor candidate is Andrew Woodward, a former journalist and management
consultant. The Greens candidate is Dr Sally Townley, an an environmental scientist and Coffs Harbour councillor.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,000 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 24.8% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 6.1% (Australia 2.8%)
Australian born: 80.2% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 5.7% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 21.3% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 28.6% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 13.3% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 30.5% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 24.0% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 4.9% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 26.1% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 29.6% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 22.9% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Francis Clarke (Prot) 1901-03
Henry Lee (FT, AS) 1903-06
John Thomson (Prot, Lib, Nat) 1906-19
Rt Hon Sir Earle Page (F&S, CP) 1919-61
Frank McGuren (ALP) 1961-63
Hon Ian Robinson (CP, NCP, NPA) 1963-84
Garry Nehl (NPA) 1984-2001
Hon Luke Hartsuyker (Nat) 2001-19
Boundaries following 2016 redistribution:
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