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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of La Trobe, Victoria
Outer eastern Melbourne: Berwick, Emerald, Gembrook, Narre Warren, Pakenham
State seats: Parts of
Bass,
Gembrook,
Narre Warren North and
Narre Warren South
Local government areas: Parts of Cardinia and Casey
Enrolment at close of rolls: 101,740
1999 republic referendum: No 51.6
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 67.5
Sitting member: Jason Wood (Liberal):
Elected 2004, 2007. Defeated 2010. Elected 2013, 2016
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 0.5%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 0.9%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.0%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.5%
2019 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 3.5%
Status: Very marginal Liberal
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Nar Nar Goon North (73.3), Beaconsfield Upper (70.1), Harkaway (66.1),
Pakenham Upper (66.0), Nar Nar Goon (64.9)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Narre Warren (64.0), Pakenham North (57.3), Cranbourne North (57.2),
Oatlands (56.9), Berwick Fields (56.7)
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Amy Gregorovich
Australian Greens |
2. Norman Baker
Rise Up Australia |
3. Jason Wood
Liberal Party |
4. Esther Baker
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
5. Duncan Dean
United Australia Party |
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6. Simon Curtis
Australian Labor Party |
7. Asher Calwell-Browne
Derryn Hinch's Justice Party |
Candidate websites:
Esther Baker
Simon Curtis
Jason Wood
Division of La Trobe
La Trobe was created in 1949, covering most of Melbourne's outer eastern suburbs. It was later cut back to centre on the
Dandenong Ranges townships. In the 1990s the seat was extended southwards to take in fast-growing and increasingly
affluent suburbs around Berwick and Narre Warren, which are high-mortgage areas sensitive to interest rates and other
hip-pocket issues. La Trobe is thus a typical mortgage belt seat, with levels of families with dependent children and
dwellings being purchased among the country's highest, and a fairly low level of people in professional and
managerial occupations.
In the 1970s La Trobe was a key marginal seat and was first won by Labor in the Whitlam victory of 1972. Members have
included Richard Casey, Minister for External Affairs in the Menzies Government, later Lord Casey and Governor-General.
It's striking that no subsequent member has gained promotion, and all but one have been eventually been defeated.
Since 1990 La Trobe has trended towards the Liberals, mainly because of the increasing affluence and conservatism of the
Berwick - Narre Warren area. Nevertheless Labor retains strong support in the Dandenong Ranges towns and in parts of Beriwck and
Narre Warren, and continues to hold most of the state seats in this area.
The 2018 redistribution has removed many of the Dandenong Ranges towns, and added the fast-growing outer suburb of
Pakenham, previously in McMillan. This has increased the Liberal majority, but Pakenham is trending towards Labor as it grows.
Jason Wood, Liberal MP for La Trobe from 2004 to 2010 and again since 2013, was a Victoria Police officer for 16 years
before entering politics, including service in the Counter Terrorism Coordination Unit. He was defeated by Labor's
Laura Smyth in 2010, but regained the seat in 2013, and retained it in the face of a swing to Labor in 2016.
Labor's candidate in 2019 will be Simon Curtis, a teacher and former City of Casey councillor, who also stood in
2016. The Greens candidate is Amy Gregorovich, a student. The One Nation candidate is Esther Baker, an accountant.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,724 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 11.9% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 70.0% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 20.4% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 22.3% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 35.3% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 20.2% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 32.7% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 32.0% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 51.7% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 16.5% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 45.2% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Rt Hon Richard Casey (Lib) 1949-60
John Jess (Lib) 1960b-72
Tony Lamb (ALP) 1972-75
Marshall Baillieu (Lib) 1975-80
Peter Milton (ALP) 1980-90
Bob Charles (Lib) 1990-2004
Jason Wood (Lib) 2004-10
Laura Smyth (ALP) 2010-13
Jason Wood (Lib) 2013-
Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:
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