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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Warringah, New South Wales
Northern Sydney: Balgowlah, Curl Curl, Killarney Heights, Manly, Mosman
State seats: All of
Manly, parts of
North Shore and
Wakehurst
Local government areas: All of Manly and Mosman, parts of North Sydney and Warringah
Enrolment at close of rolls: 105,077
1999 republic referendum: Yes 54.4
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 75.0
Sitting member: Hon Tony Abbott (Liberal):
Elected 1994 by-election, 1996, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2010, 2013, 2016
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 9.5%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 13.1%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 15.4%
2016 Liberal majority over Greens: 11.6%
2016 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 11.1%
2019 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 11.1%
Status: Fairly safe Liberal
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Heather Barnes
Animal Justice Party |
2. Susan Moylan
Independent |
3. Dean Harris
Australian Labor Party |
4. Emanuele Paletto
Sustainable Australia |
5. Suellen Wrightson
United Australia Party |
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6. Hon Tony Abbott
Liberal Party |
7. Brian Clare
Fraser Anning's Conservative
National Party |
8. Zali Steggall
Independent |
9. Jason Blaiklock
Christian Democratic Party |
10. Kristyn Glanville
Australian Greens |
Candidate websites:
Hon Tony Abbott
Kristyn Glanville
Dean Harris
Nathan Spataro
Zali Steggall
Division of Warringah
Warringah was created in 1922, covering the eastern part of Sydney's North Shore, based on Manly. Subsequent
redistributions have reduced the seat in size without changing its social or political character. It is the
wealthiest electorate in Australia, with a very high median income level, a high proportion of graduates and a high proportion
of people in professional and managerial occupations.
Labor has never come close to winning Warringah, but the Manly area does have a history of support for independents,
including Percy Spender, who won Warringah as an independent in 1937 before becoming a Cabinet minister under Menzies,
and Peter McDonald, an independent state MP, who came second in Warringah in 2001.
Tony Abbott, Liberal MP for Warringah since 1994, was a journalist for The Bulletin and head of Australians for
Constitutional Monarchy before his election. He was a protege of Prime Minister John Howard and was a Cabinet minister
from 2001. In December 2009 he resigned from the opposition front bench in protest at Malcolm Turnbull's agreement to
support the Rudd Government's emission trading scheme. This caused a crisis in the Liberal Party which ended with Abbott
seizing the leadership.
At the 2010 election Abbott performed well enough to force Labor into minority government, and his relentless methods of
opposition helped him lead the Coalition to victory in 2013. As Prime Minister, however, his dogmatic style, harsh
economic policies and quixotic actions such as restoring knighthoods led to a rapid decline in his standing with the
public, reflected in poor polls. More importantly, the domineering behaviour of his chief of staff, Peta Credlin,
alienated his senior colleagues. In September 2015 Turnbull succeeded in regaining the leadership, making Abbott the
third successive PM to be deposed by their own party.
Abbott spent the next three years sabotaging Turnbull in every way he could short of open rebellion. He did not
aspire to regain the Liberal leadership for himself, but was determined to make sure Turnbull was deposed, and hoped he
would return to Cabinet under a more conservative successor. He got his way when Turnbull was forced to resign in August
2018, but his preferred leader, Peter Dutton, was defeated by Scott Morrison, and Abbott remained on the backbench.
Abbott's behaviour and his unbending conservative views have alienated voters in Warringah, which like
most affluent urban areas is increasingly liberal on many issues - it voted 75% yes in the marriage equality survey. Abbott
has rejected suggestions that he quit politics and will run in Warringah again in 2019. While he is no danger from
Labor candidate Dean Harris, a marketing consultant, or Greens candidate Kristyn Glanville, a lawyer, he could be at risk to a independent.
Following Kerryn Phelps's victory in the Wentworth by-election, an active search for a challenger began. First to declare
was Indigenous activist Susan Moylan-Coombs, but she was thought to lack the necessary high profile. A more serious challenger soon
emerged in Zali Steggall, a Olympic skier. A local poll in early February suggested that Stegall could defeat Abbott.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $2,384 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 15.0% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 61.1% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 19.9% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 24.0% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 35.5% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 42.3% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 55.7% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 14.8% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 30.7% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 34.6% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 35.9% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Hon Sir Granville Ryrie (Nat) 1922-27
Hon Sir Archdale Parkhill (Nat, UAP) 1927b-37
Hon Percy Spender (Ind, UAP, Lib) 1937-51
Francis Bland (Lib) 1951-61
John Cockle (Lib) 1961-66
Edward St John (Lib, Ind) 1966-69
Hon Michael MacKellar (Lib) 1969-94
Hon Tony Abbott (Lib) 1994b-
Boundaries following 2016 redistribution:
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