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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Dunkley, Victoria
Southern Melbourne: Carrum Downs, Frankston, Langwarrin, Mt Eliza, Seaford
State seats: All of
Frankston, parts of
Carrum,
Hastings and
Mornington
Local government areas: All of Frankston, parts of Mornington Peninsula
Enrolment at close of rolls: 110,685
1999 republic referendum: No 54.7
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 72.0
Sitting member: Chris Crewther (Liberal):
Elected 2016
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.0%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.0%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.6%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.4%
2019 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 1.3%
Status: Very marginal Labor
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Mt Eliza Central (80.0), Mt Eliza (65.3), Kunyung (63.5),
Mt Eliza South (62.8), Mt Eliza North (62.4)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Aldercourt (67.8), Frankston Rail (64.3), Rowellyn Park (63.7),
Lyrebird (63.9), Karingal (63.0)
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
 |
 |
 |
 |
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1. Lachlan O'Connell
Derryn Hinch's Justice Party |
2. Elizabeth Johnston
Animal Justice Party |
3. Ronald Jean
United Australia Party |
4. Peta Murphy
Australian Labor Party |
5. Emily Green
Australian Greens |
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6. Chris Crewther
Liberal Party |
6. Christopher James
Fraser Anning's Conservative
National Party |
Candidate websites:
Chris Crewther
Emily Green
Peta Murphy
Division of Dunkley
Dunkley was created in 1984, based on Frankston, a suburban centre at the southern end of Melbourne's urban sprawl. Although it has a lower
proportion of families with dependent children than most outer suburban seats, it is still sensitive to interest rates
and similar economic issues. It has among the highest proportion of people working in maufacturing and construction of any seat, and
correspondingly lower levels of university graduates and people in professional and managerial occupations. It also has a low level of
non English-speaking households for an urban seat.
A very marginal seat when it was created, Dunkley has become better for the Liberals at recent elections. Frankston itself tends to
vote Labor, but subsequent redistributions extended the seat further south into solidly Liberal territory around Mt Eliza and Mornington.
The 2018 redistribution has made substantial changes to Dunkley, removing the Liberal stronghold of Morningtom and adding Labor-inclined territory
in Carrum Downs and Skye to the north of the seat, formerly in Isaacs. The only solidly Liberal territory left in the seat is Mt Eliza, one of Melbourne's
wealthiest areas.
These changes have turned Dunkley into a notionally Labor seat, but experience shows that
notional majorities often do not turn into real majorities.
Bruce Billson won Dunkley in 1996 and held it for 20 years, despite close calls in 1998 and 2010. He was a junior minister in both the Howard
and Abbott governments, before being dropped by Malcolm Turnbull. He retired at the 2016 election, and was succeeded by Chris Crewther, who
survived a 4.1% swing to Labor.
Chris Crewther, Liberal MP for Dunkley since 2016, is a former CEO of the Mildura Development Corporation, who also worked as an international lawyer in
Kosovo, and later ran a consultancy. He was Liberal candidate for Mallee in 2013.
The Labor candidate is Peta Murphy, a criminal defence lawyer and legal
aid public advocate, who also ran in 2016. Crewther has had three years to entrench himself in the seat, and the Labor vote in the new
areas may be inflated by the strong personal vote for Mark Dreyfus in Isaacs. This is a seat Labor needs to win and the Liberals need to retain,
so it will be hotly contested. The Greens candidate is Emily Green, a student.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,325 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 19.0% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 72.2% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 11.4% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 20.4% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 39.3% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 17.2% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 31.6% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 32.6% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 37.7% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 26.4% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 30.3% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Robert Chynoweth (ALP) 1984-90
Frank Ford (Lib) 1990-93
Robert Chynoweth (ALP) 1993-96
Hon Bruce Billson (Lib) 1996-2016
Chris Crewther (Lib) 2016-
Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:
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