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Adam Carr's Election Archive

Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Isaacs, Victoria

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Southern Melbourne: Chelsea, Dandenong South, Mentone, Moorabbin, Mordialloc
State seats: All of Mordialloc, parts of Carrum, Clarinda, Dandenong and Keysborough
Local government areas: Parts of Greater Dandenong and Kingston
Enrolment at close of rolls: 108,325
1999 republic referendum: No 53.3
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 65.3

Sitting member: Hon Mark Dreyfus (Labor): Elected 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016

2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 7.7%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 11.0%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 3.9%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal 5.8%
2019 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 2.3%

Status: Very marginal Labor

Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Patterson Lakes (58.0), Dingley Village (55.3), Cheltenham PPVC (53.5), Parkdale (53.4), Aspendale (52.3)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Dandenong South (75.7), Keysborough (63.1), Springvale PPVC (61.4), Chelsea Heights (60.6), Chelsea Central (59.5)

  • 2016 results
  • Statistics and history

  • Candidates in ballot-paper order:

    1. Kim Samiotis
    Australian Greens
    2. Jeremy Hearn
    Liberal Party (disendorsed)
    3. Ash Puvimanasinghe
    Rise Up Australia
    4. Bronwyn Currie
    Animal Justice Party
    5. Hon Mark Dreyfus
    Australian Labor Party
    6. Tony Seals
    United Australia Party



    Candidate websites:

    Hon Mark Dreyfus
    Jeremy Hearn Kim Samiotis

    Division of Isaacs

    Isaacs was created in 1969 (there was an older seat of Isaacs in another part of Melbourne), running down the eastern shore of Port Phillip, and has always been a marginal seat. Although Isaacs has a fairly high level of median family income, it also has a high proportion of people employed in manufacturing, and a low proportion of people in professional and managerial occupations. This would suggest an electorate with a large number of skilled workers, and indeed 30% of its residents work in manufacturing and construction.

    Isaacs is also a mortgage belt seat, with a high level of families with dependent children and of dwellings being purchased. The electorate's fear of interest rate rises partly explains the large swing against Labor in 2004, while it was the fear among manufacturing workers of the Howard Government's WorkChoices policy that produced a big swing back to Labor in 2007.

    Greg Wilton won Isaacs for Labor in 1996, against the trend of the election. Following his death in 2000, Ann Corcoran won the subsequent by-election. She was an inconspicuous member, and in 2007 the Labor Right faction engineered a move against her that installed Mark Dreyfus QC as the Labor candidate.

    Mark Dreyfus, MP for Isaacs since 2007, and the first member for Isaacs to be a minister, was a leading Melbourne barrister, and also an adviser to several Labor state ministers, before his election. He was appointed a parliamentary secretary in 2010 and became Attorney-General and Special Minister of State in early 2013. He is now shadow attorney-general. Although there was a big swing to the Liberals in 2013, Dreyfus increased his majority in 2016.

    The 2018 redistribution has removed two blocks of strong Labor territory, around Carrum Downs in the south and Noble Park in the north, replacing them with marginal territory around Heatherton and Moorabbin, formerly in Hotham. This has cut the Labor margin to 2.3%, making the seat once again very marginal.

    The Liberal candidate is Jeremy Hearn, an architect. Two weeks before the election, after nominations had closed, he was disendorsed after making anti-Muslim remarks. The Greens candidate is Kim Samiotis, whose occupation is not stated.

    Demographics:

    Median weekly household income: $1,504 (Australia $1,438)
    People over 65: 14.6% (Australia 15.8%)
    Australian born: 60.9% (Australia 66.7%)
    Non-English-speaking households: 30.2% (Australia 22.2%)
    Catholics 24.1% (Australia 22.6%)
    Buddhist 5.3%
    No religion 30.2% (Australia 29.6%)
    University graduates: 20.9% (Australia 22.0%)
    Professional and managerial employment: 33.4% (Australia 35.2%)
    Employed in manufacturing and construction: 30.0% (Australia 22.9%)
    Paying a mortgage: 40.7% (Australia 34.5%)
    Renting: 26.0% (Australia 30.9%)
    Traditional families: 37.3% (Australia 32.8%)

    Members:

    David Hamer (Lib) 1969-74
    Gareth Clayton (ALP) 1974-75
    David Hamer (Lib) 1975-77
    Bill Burns (Lib) 1977-80
    David Charles (ALP) 1980-90
    Rod Atkinson (Lib) 1990-96
    Greg Wilton (ALP) 1996-2000
    Ann Corcoran (ALP) 2000b-07
    Hon Mark Dreyfus (ALP) 2007-

    Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:




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