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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Bruce, Victoria
Eastern Melbourne: Dandenong, Endeavour Hills, Hallam, Keysborough, Springvale
State seats: Parts of
Clarinda,
Dandenong,
Keysborough,
Mulgrave and
Narre Warren North
Local government areas: Parts of Casey and Greater Dandenong
Enrolment at close of rolls: 109,213
1999 republic referendum: Yes 54.5
2018 same-sex marriage survey: No 53.1
Sitting member: Julian Hill (Labor): Elected 2016
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 8.3%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 8.1%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 1.8%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.1%
2019 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 15.7%
Status: Safe Labor
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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 |
 |
 |
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1. Tim Boyanton
Fraser Anning's Conservative
National Party |
2. Mubahil Ahmed
United Australia Party |
3. John MacIsaac
Liberal Party |
4. Julian Hill
Australian Labor Party |
5. Rhonda Garad
Australian Greens |
Candidate websites:
Rhonda Garad
Julian Hill
John MacIsaac
Division of Bruce
Bruce was created in 1955, in Melbourne's fast-growing eastern suburbs: at that time it covered the whole outer
eastern suburban area, and by 1966 had over 100,000 voters - unheard-of at that time. In 1969 it was cut back to a
block of suburbs based on Glen Waverley, and on those boundaries it was a fairly safe Liberal seat, although Labor
nearly won it in 1983. The 1996 redistribution, however, moved the seat south to take in the industrial area around
Dandenong, which made it a marginal Labor seat, although it still had a higher than average median income level.
The 2018 redistribution has radically changed the seat, cutting out all its Liberal-voting areas and adding
Labor territory from Holt, Hotham and Isaacs (weakening all three of those seats for Labor). It is now firmly based
on the Dandenong-Springvale corridor and a very safe Labor seat. It now has no territory in common with seat as it existed
on its 1969 boundaries.
The first member for Bruce was Sir Billy Snedden, who was Liberal Treasurer, Leader of the Opposition and Speaker of the
House. Alan Griffin won the seat for Labor in 1996 after a favourable redistribution and held it for 20 years,
although he was run close in 2013. He was a minister in the Rudd-Gillard government and retired in 2016.
The lucky beneficiary of the 2018 redistribution is Griffin's former staffer and chosen successor, Julian Hill,
Labor MP for Bruce since 2016. Hill held senior positions in the Victorian public service and was a City of Port
Phillip Councillor and the city's youngest Mayor. He is openly gay. The Liberals made a serious bid for Bruce in 2016,
but Hill will now not be troubled in this seat.
The Liberal candidate is John MacIsaac, a mining engineer. The Greens candidate is Rhonda Garad, whose occupation is not stated.
Demographics:
Bruce has been so radically changed by the redistribution that the ABS demographic data are no longer useable. These
data are for the City of Greater Dandenong, which covers much of the same territory.
Median weekly household income: $1,168 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 14.4% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 40.2% (Australia 66.7%)
Ancestry: Chinese 9.5%, Vietnamese 9.3%, Indian 6.9%
Non-English-speaking households: 64.5% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 19.9% (Australia 22.6%)
Muslim 12.5%
No religion 16.9% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 16.5% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 21.2% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 30.4% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 30.2% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 34.9% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 38.8% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Rt Hon Sir Billy Snedden (Lib) 1955-83
Ken Aldred (Lib) 1983b-84
Julian Beale (Lib) 1984-96
Hon Alan Griffin (ALP) 1996-2016
Julian Hill (ALP) 2016-
Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:
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