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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Herbert, Queensland
North Queensland: Condon, Kirwan, Mount Louisa, Mundingburra, Townsville
State seats: All of
Townsville, parts of
Burdekin,
Hinchinbrook,
Mundingburra and
Thuringowa
Local government areas: All of Palm Island, parts of Townsville
Enrolment at close of rolls: 108,434
1999 republic referendum: No 61.5
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 62.8
Sitting member: Cathy O'Toole (Labor):
Elected 2016
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 0.2%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 2.2%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 6.3%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 0.0%
2019 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 0.0%
Status: Very marginal Labor
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Annandale (59.7), Alice River (57.5), North Ward (56.7),
Townville PPVC (56.1), Riverside (56.0)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Palm Island (86.7), Garbutt (60.5), Currajong (59.6), Kelso (59.2),
Rasmussen (59.2)
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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 |
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1. Amy Lohse
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
2. Greg Dowling
United Australia Party |
3. Nanette Radeck
Katter's Australian Party |
4. Sam Blackadder
Australian Greens |
5. Phillip Thompson
Liberal National Party |
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6. Tamara Durant
Fraser Anning's Conservative
National Party |
7. Mackenzie Severns
Animal Justice Party |
8. Cathy O'Toole
Australian Labor Party |
Candidate websites:
Sam Blackadder
Cathy O'Toole
Nanette Radeck
Phillip Thompson
Division of Herbert
Herbert has existed since Federation, and once covered all of north Queensland. Since 1949 it has consisted of Townsville and surrounding areas. The 2006
redistribution cut it back to the city and suburbs, making it an entirely urban seat for the first time. It is unchanged by the 2018 redistribution.
Townsville is a regional administrative centre and a booming tourist town, so Herbert has a somewhat higher level of median family income than most
regional seats, and also a high proportion of government employees, including many defence personnel.
For most of its early history Herbert was a safe Labor seat, although its first Labor member retained it as a Nationalist for most of the 1920s.
In recent times, as Labor's regional base has declined, Herbert has trended Liberal, a process hastened by the large military vote. Labor retains strength in
the older parts of the city, and also among the Indigenous voters of Palm Island, but Townsville's new outer suburbs tend to be more conservative. Labor lost
the seat in 1966, and did not regain it until 1983, when Ted Lindsay won it in the Hawke landslide and held it until 1996. Peter Lindsay (no relation) won the
seat for the Liberals in 1996, and retained it without too much difficulty until his retirement in 2010, when Ewen Jones retained it with a swing in his
favour. He increased his majority in 2013.
In 2016, however, there was a sharp and unexpected swing to Labor, and after an epic count Herbert fell by 37 votes to Labor's Cathy O'Toole, who had also
contested the seat in 2013. Before entering politics she operated businesses in the vocational education and training fields and worked as a TAFE teacher and
administrator, then as chief executive of mental heath service SOLAS.
As Labor's most marginal seat, Herbert will be hotly contested in 2019, particularly since Labor is now in government in Queensland and Labor can expect to
be affected by any unpopularity of the state Labor government. On the other hand polls through 2018 have consistently shown federal Labor polling strongly
in Queensland.
The Liberal-National candidate in 2019 will be Phillip Thompson OAM, a 29-year-old veteran of the Afghanistan war and 2018
Young Queenslander of the Year. In a seat with a large military vote, he may prove a formidable challenger. The eccentric
mining magnate and former MP Clive Palmer announced that he was contesting Herbert for his new United Australia Party, despite
the ignominious end of his first parliamentary career, but in April he withdrew. His replacement candidate is Greg Dowling. The Greens candidate is Sam Blackadder, who works in renewable energy.
Katter's Australian Party is also contesting, with Nanette Radeck, a teacher.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,392 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 11.7% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 8.5% (Australia 2.8%)
Non-English-speaking households: 9.1% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 26.9% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 28.6% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 15.3% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 27.8% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 20.6% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 34.1% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 41.0% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 29.5% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Hon Fred Bamford (ALP, Nat) 1901-25
Dr Lewis Nott (Nat) 1925-28
George Martens (ALP) 1928-46
William Edmonds (ALP) 1946-58
John Murray (Lib) 1958-61
Ted Harding (ALP) 1961-66
Robert Bonnett (Lib) 1966-77
Arthur Dean (Lib) 1977-83
Hon Ted Lindsay (ALP) 1983-96
Hon Peter Lindsay (Lib) 1996-2010
Ewen Jones (Lib) 2010-16
Cathy O'Toole (ALP) 2016-
Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:
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