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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Dickson, Queensland
Outer northern Brisbane: Albany Creek, Bray Park, Dayboro, Ferny Hills, Kallangur
State seats: All of
Pine Rivers, parts of
Glass House,
Kurwongbah and
Murrumba
Local government areas: Parts of Brisbane and Moreton Bay
Enrolment at close of rolls: 108,232
1999 republic referendum: No 58.8
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 65.2
Sitting member: Hon Peter Dutton (Liberal):
Elected 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 0.1%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.1%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 6.7%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 2.0%
2019 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 2.0%
Status: Very marginal Liberal
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Samford (64.8), Closeburn (63.9), Albany Creek South (62.9), Eatons Hill (62.4), Samford Central (61.7)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Mount Nebo (75.8), Kallangur East (66.9), Kallangur (65.7), Lawnton (63.3), Bray Park (63.0)
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
 |
 |
 |
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1. Benedict Coyne
Australian Greens |
2. Hon Peter Dutton
Liberal Party |
3. Ali France
Australian Labor Party |
4. Thor Prohaska
Independent |
5. Steve Austin
United Australia Party |
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6. Carroll Halliwell
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
7. Richelle Simpson
Fraser Anning's Conservative
National Party |
8. Maureen Brohman
Animal Justice Party |
Candidate websites:
Benedict Coyne
Hon Peter Dutton
Ali France
Division of Dickson
Dickson was created in 1993, located in Brisbane's fast-growing outer north-western suburbs. It is a classic mortgage belt seat, with levels of
families with dependent children and of dwellings being purchased which are among the country's highest. The seat also has a fairly high level of
median family income, although it has a below-average level of people in professional and managerial occupations.
Dickson has always been politically marginal. Labor's strength is in suburbs in the northern part of the seat, such as Bray Park,
Kallangur and Murrumba Downs, while suburbs further south such as Albany Creek and Eatons Hill, as well as the semi-rural western part of the
seat, are strongly Liberal.
Members for Dickson have included Michael Lavarch, a minister in the Keating Government, and Cheryl Kernot, who defected to Labor from the leadership of the
Australian Democrats in 1998. After three years of erratic behaviour she was defeated in 2001, and the seat has remained with the Liberals since,
despite a close call in 2007 and a substantial swing to Labor in 2016.
Peter Dutton, Liberal MP for Dickson since 2001, was a police officer before his election. He was a junior minister in the last term of the Howard
Government, and was on the opposition front bench from 2007 to 2013. He was so certain he would lose Dickson in 2007 that he tried to shift to the
safe seat of McPherson, but was rejected. As it turned out, he narrowly retained Dickson. He was Minister for Health and for Sport in the Abbott
Government and later Minister for Immigration and Border Protection. In December 2017 he also made Minister for Home Affairs, in charge of all
national security issues. He was then regarded as Tony Abbott's successor as leader of the right wing of the Liberal Party, and as a potential leader.
In August 2018, with the backing of Abbott's faction and the Murdoch media, Dutton planned a challenge to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.
Turnbull pre-empted him by bringing on a party-room vote, which Turnbull narrowly won. Dutton then resigned, followed by a string of his supporters.
This led to Turnbull's resignation, but Dutton was outmanoeuvred by Treasurer Scott Morrison, who won the subsequent leadership ballot. Dutton was
then re-appointed to Home Affairs, but lost the Immigration portfolio.
With a 2.0% majority, however, Dutton's first priority must be retaining his seat, in the face of polls showing a substantial swing to Labor in
Queensland - a trend confirmed in the July Longman by-election. Given the intensity of Labor's dislike for Dutton, a lot
of effort and money will be put into this contest. Labor's candidate is Ali France, a journalist, high-profile disability activist and
athlete. She is familiar with politics as the daughter of former state minister Peter Lawler. The Greens candidate is
Benedict Coyne, a human rights lawyer.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,739 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 12.7% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 2.1% (Australia 2.8%)
Australian born: 76.9% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 9.6% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 22.5% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 30.3% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 19.3% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 32.3% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 25.1% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 46.0% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 23.2% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 41.0% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Hon Michael Lavarch (ALP) 1993-96
Tony Smith (Lib, Ind) 1996-98
Cheryl Kernot (ALP) 1998-2001
Hon Peter Dutton (Lib) 2001-
Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:
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