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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Flinders, Victoria
South-east of Melbourne: Dromana, Hastings, Mornington, Mount Martha, Portsea
State seats: All of
Nepean, parts of
Hastings and
Mornington
Local government areas: Parts of Mornington Peninsula
Enrolment at close of rolls: 110,729
1999 republic referendum: No 58.1
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 70.0
Sitting member: Hon Greg Hunt (Liberal): Elected 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 8.3%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 9.1%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 11.8%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 7.8%
2019 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 7.2%
Status: Marginal Liberal
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Harry Dreger
Independent |
2. James Persson
Animal Justice Party |
3. Hon Greg Hunt
Liberal Party |
4. Reade Smith
Sustainable Australia |
5. Joshua Sinclair
Australian Labor Party |
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6. Nathan Lesslie
Australian Greens |
7. Christine McShane
United Australia Party |
8. Julia Banks
Independent |
9. Susie Beveridge
Independent |
Candidate websites:
Julia Banks
Hon Greg Hunt
Nathan Lesslie
Joshua Sinclair
Division of Flinders
Flinders has existed since Federation, and has always occupied the Mornington Peninsula area south of Melbourne.
At various times it has also taken in large areas of the southern and eastern suburbs of Melbourne and parts of
western Gippsland. On its current boundaries most of its voters live in the tourism and retirement towns on the
Peninsula, from Mornington to Portsea. This explains both the electorate's low median family income and its high
proportion of over-65s. The seat also has a low proportion of university graduates and people in professional and
managerial employment, and a very low proportion of non English-speaking households.
In the 1970s and '80s, when the seat included the Labor-voting area of Frankston, it was highly marginal. But Labor
has won Flinders only three times, including the famous upset in 1929 when Nationalist Prime Minister Stanley
Bruce was defeated. Labor last won the seat in 1983. Apart from Bruce, eminent members for Flinders have included Liberal Cabinet ministers Sir
Phillip Lynch and Peter Reith.
Greg Hunt, Liberal MP for Flinders since 2001, the son of longtime state minister Alan Hunt, is a lawyer, and
was an adviser to Alexander Downer before his election. He was a parliamentary secretary in the last term of the
Howard Government, on the opposition frontbench from 2007 to 2013, and in January 2017 became Minister for Health. In August 2018 he resigned
from the ministry and supported Peter Dutton's unsuccessful challenge to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. He then contested
ballot for Deputy Leader but polled poorly. Prime Minister Scott Morrison re-appointed him Minister for Health, but his
conduct during the crisis has reduced his standing.
Hunt's role in the fall of Turmbull had consequences in January 2019, when Chisholm MP Julia Banks, who resigned
from the Liberal Pary in the wake of the upheaveal, announced that she would stand against Hunt in Flinders. Her candidacy would
seem to be a long-shot since she has no standing in the area, but it will force Hunt to spend more time on local campaigning.
The Labor candidate is Joshua Sinclair, a staffer with Chris Brayne (MLA for Nepean). Sinclair also contested Flinders
in 2013. The Greens candidate is Nathan Lesslie, a social worker.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,224 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 23.3% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 77.0% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 7.5% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 20.0% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 39.1% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 14.1% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 29.3% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 34.6% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 3.6% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 36.4% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 20.9% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 29.3% (Australia 32.8%)
Members:
Arthur Groom (FT) 1901-03
James Gibb (FT, AS) 1903-06
Hon Sir William Irvine (AS, Lib, Nat) 1906-18
Rt Hon Stanley Bruce (Nat) 1918b-29
Hon Ted Holloway (ALP) 1929-31
Rt Hon Stanley Bruce (UAP) 1931-33
James Fairbairn (UAP) 1933b-40
Rupert Ryan (UAP, Lib) 1940-52
Keith Ewert (ALP) 1952b-54
Robert Lindsay (Lib) 1954-66
Rt Hon Sir Phillip Lynch (Lib) 1966-82
Peter Reith (Lib) 1982b-83
Robert Chynoweth (ALP) 1983-84
Hon Peter Reith (Lib) 1984-2001
Hon Greg Hunt (Lib) 2001-
Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:
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