Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive

Adam Carr's Election Archive

Australian federal election, 2019
Division of Flinders, Victoria

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South-east of Melbourne: Dromana, Hastings, Mornington, Mount Martha, Portsea
State seats: All of Nepean, parts of Hastings and Mornington
Local government areas: Parts of Mornington Peninsula
Enrolment at close of rolls: 110,729
1999 republic referendum: No 58.1
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 70.0

Sitting member: Hon Greg Hunt (Liberal): Elected 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016

2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 8.3%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 9.1%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 11.8%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 7.8%
2019 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 7.2%

Status: Marginal Liberal

  • 2016 results
  • Statistics and history

  • Candidates in ballot-paper order:

    1. Harry Dreger
    Independent
    2. James Persson
    Animal Justice Party
    3. Hon Greg Hunt
    Liberal Party
    4. Reade Smith
    Sustainable Australia
    5. Joshua Sinclair
    Australian Labor Party
    6. Nathan Lesslie
    Australian Greens
    7. Christine McShane
    United Australia Party
    8. Julia Banks
    Independent
    9. Susie Beveridge
    Independent



    Candidate websites:

    Julia Banks
    Hon Greg Hunt
    Nathan Lesslie
    Joshua Sinclair

    Division of Flinders

    Flinders has existed since Federation, and has always occupied the Mornington Peninsula area south of Melbourne. At various times it has also taken in large areas of the southern and eastern suburbs of Melbourne and parts of western Gippsland. On its current boundaries most of its voters live in the tourism and retirement towns on the Peninsula, from Mornington to Portsea. This explains both the electorate's low median family income and its high proportion of over-65s. The seat also has a low proportion of university graduates and people in professional and managerial employment, and a very low proportion of non English-speaking households.

    In the 1970s and '80s, when the seat included the Labor-voting area of Frankston, it was highly marginal. But Labor has won Flinders only three times, including the famous upset in 1929 when Nationalist Prime Minister Stanley Bruce was defeated. Labor last won the seat in 1983. Apart from Bruce, eminent members for Flinders have included Liberal Cabinet ministers Sir Phillip Lynch and Peter Reith.

    Greg Hunt, Liberal MP for Flinders since 2001, the son of longtime state minister Alan Hunt, is a lawyer, and was an adviser to Alexander Downer before his election. He was a parliamentary secretary in the last term of the Howard Government, on the opposition frontbench from 2007 to 2013, and in January 2017 became Minister for Health. In August 2018 he resigned from the ministry and supported Peter Dutton's unsuccessful challenge to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. He then contested ballot for Deputy Leader but polled poorly. Prime Minister Scott Morrison re-appointed him Minister for Health, but his conduct during the crisis has reduced his standing.

    Hunt's role in the fall of Turmbull had consequences in January 2019, when Chisholm MP Julia Banks, who resigned from the Liberal Pary in the wake of the upheaveal, announced that she would stand against Hunt in Flinders. Her candidacy would seem to be a long-shot since she has no standing in the area, but it will force Hunt to spend more time on local campaigning.

    The Labor candidate is Joshua Sinclair, a staffer with Chris Brayne (MLA for Nepean). Sinclair also contested Flinders in 2013. The Greens candidate is Nathan Lesslie, a social worker.

    Demographics:

    Median weekly household income: $1,224 (Australia $1,438)
    People over 65: 23.3% (Australia 15.8%)
    Australian born: 77.0% (Australia 66.7%)
    Non-English-speaking households: 7.5% (Australia 22.2%)
    Catholics 20.0% (Australia 22.6%)
    No religion 39.1% (Australia 29.6%)
    University graduates: 14.1% (Australia 22.0%)
    Professional and managerial employment: 29.3% (Australia 35.2%)
    Employed in manufacturing and construction: 34.6% (Australia 22.9%)
    Employed in agriculture: 3.6% (Australia 3.3%)
    Paying a mortgage: 36.4% (Australia 34.5%)
    Renting: 20.9% (Australia 30.9%)
    Traditional families: 29.3% (Australia 32.8%)

    Members:

    Arthur Groom (FT) 1901-03
    James Gibb (FT, AS) 1903-06
    Hon Sir William Irvine (AS, Lib, Nat) 1906-18
    Rt Hon Stanley Bruce (Nat) 1918b-29
    Hon Ted Holloway (ALP) 1929-31
    Rt Hon Stanley Bruce (UAP) 1931-33
    James Fairbairn (UAP) 1933b-40
    Rupert Ryan (UAP, Lib) 1940-52
    Keith Ewert (ALP) 1952b-54
    Robert Lindsay (Lib) 1954-66
    Rt Hon Sir Phillip Lynch (Lib) 1966-82
    Peter Reith (Lib) 1982b-83
    Robert Chynoweth (ALP) 1983-84
    Hon Peter Reith (Lib) 1984-2001
    Hon Greg Hunt (Lib) 2001-

    Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:




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