Adam Carr's Election Archive

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Australian federal election, 2016
Division of Monash, Victoria

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Eastern Victoria: Korrumburra, Leongatha, Moe, Wonthaggi, Warragul
State seats: All of Narracan, parts of Bass and Gippsland South
Local government areas: All of Bass Coast, Baw Baw and South Gippsland, parts of Cardinia and Latrobe

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Enrolment at close of rolls: 112,516

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1999 republic referendum: No 63.6
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 62.7

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Sitting member: Russell Broadbent (Liberal): Elected 1990. Defeated 1993. Elected 1996. Defeated 1998. Elected 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016

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2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.8% *
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.4% *
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 11.8% *
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 6.6% *
2019 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 7.6%

* as McMillan

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Status: Marginal Liberal

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2016 results

Statistics and history

Candidates in ballot-paper order:

1. John Verhoeven Independent	2. Michael Fozard Independent	3. Jeff Waddell Pauline Hanson's One Nation	4. Jessica O'Donnell Australian Labor Party	5. William Hornstra Australian Greens

6. Russell Broadbent Liberal Party	7. Matthew Sherry United Australia Party

Candidate websites:

Russell Broadbent
William Hornstra
Jessica O'Donnell
Jeff Waddell

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Division of Monash

Monash is the new name for the seat of McMillan*, which was created in 1949, located in the rural West Gippsland region of Victoria. Although it included the coal-mining towns of the La Trobe Valley, it was a safe Liberal seat until the 1970s, and was not won by Labor until 1980. Since then it has been a marginal seat, changing hands several times, although in 2013 it swung strongly to the Liberals.

Socially, the seat consists of two parts. The La Trobe Valley (most of which is now in the seat of Gippsland) has declining working-class towns like Moe, with low-income families and high unemployment. South Gippsland is a dairy farming area, with its coastal areas being colonised by urban exiles. Labor's remaining strength is in the Moe-Newborough area and in the old coal-mining town of Wonthaggi, while the Liberals dominate the rural areas. The Princes Highway towns of Drouin and Warragul are suburbanising.

Between 1980 and 2004, McMillan changed hands six times, and was one of the most hotly-contested seats in the country. Russell Broadbent first won it in 1996, but was defeated in 1998 by Christian Zahra, who became the youngest member of the House. Zahra retained the seat in 2001, but was greatly disadvantaged by the 2004 redistribution, which moved the Labor stronghold of Morwell into Gippsland. Broadbent then regained the seat and has held it fairly easily since, although there was a sizeable swing to Labor in 2016.

Russell Broadbent, Liberal MP for Corinella from 1990 to 1993 and for McMillan from 1996 to 1998 and from 2004, was a local retailer and Pakenham Shire Councillor before his election. He has never left the back bench, but has a fairly high profile because of his dissent from some Liberal policies, notably on immigration. Over 26 years he has accumulated a large personal vote which partly explains the substantial Liberal margin in what was once a very marginal seat. He will apparently run again in 2019, when he will be 68.

The 2018 redistribution has removed the dormitory suburb of Pakenham from the renamed seat, while adding semi-rural territory on the east coast of Western Port, plus Phillip Island. This has slightly increased the Liberal majority.

The Labor candidate is Baw Baw Shire councillor Jessica O'Donnell. The Greens candidate is William Hornstra, a student. The One Nation candidate is Jeff Waddell, whose occupation is not stated.

* The renaming followed a campaign to draw attention to Angus McMillan's role in the massacres of Indigenous people in South Gippsland in the 1840s.

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Demographics:

Median weekly household income: $1,163 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 18.7% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 77.6% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 9.1% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 20.7% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 35.5% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 12.4% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 28.1% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 31.1% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 8.8% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 37.5% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 24.1% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 30.4% (Australia 32.8%)

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Members for McMillan:

Geoffrey Brown (Lib) 1949-55
Alexander Buchanan (Lib) 1955-72
Henry Hewson (CP, NCP) 1972-75
Barry Simon (Lib) 1975-80
Barry Cunningham (ALP) 1980-90
John Riggall (Lib) 1990-93
Barry Cunningham (ALP) 1993-96
Russell Broadbent (Lib) 1996-98
Christian Zahra (ALP) 1998-2004
Russell Broadbent (Lib) 2004-

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Boundaries following 2018 redistribution:

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