Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive

Psephos: Adam Carr's Election Archive
Victorian state election, 28 November 2026

List of seats in pendulum order

See these seats in alphabetical order



Very safe Labor (over 16%)

  • Dandenong (Labor over Liberal 19.1%)
  • Laverton (Labor over Liberal 18.0%)
  • Kalkallo (Labor over Liberal 16.4%)
  • Lara (Labor over Liberal 16.1%)
  • Thomastown (Labor over Liberal 16.0%)

  • Safe Labor (12-16%)

  • Broadmeadows (Labor over Liberal 15.4%)
  • Geelong (Labor over Liberal 14.7%)
  • Bendigo West (Labor over Liberal 14.4%)
  • Kororoit (Labor over Liberal 14.3%)
  • Oakleigh (Labor over Liberal 13.5%)
  • Wendouree (Labor over Liberal 13.5%)
  • Williamstown (Labor over Liberal 13.4%)
  • Ivanhoe (Labor over Liberal 12.8%)
  • Bundoora (Labor over Liberal 12.7%)
  • Tarneit (Labor over Liberal 12.6%)
  • Essendon (Labor over Liberal 12.5%)

  • Fairly safe Labor (8-12%)

  • Mill Park (Labor over Liberal 11.4%)
  • Albert Park (Labor over Liberal 11.2%)
  • Bendigo East (Labor over Liberal 10.9%)
  • Werribee (Labor over Liberal 10.5%)
  • Clarinda (Labor over Liberal 10.4%)
  • Mulgrave (Labor over Liberal 10.2%)
  • South Barwon (Labor over Liberal 9.8%)
  • Carrum (Labor over Liberal 9.9%)
  • St Albans (Labor over Liberal 9.6%)
  • Macedon (Labor over Liberal 9.5%)
  • Narre Warren North (Labor over Liberal 9.2%)
  • Cranbourne (Labor over Liberal 9.0%)
  • Eltham (Labor over Liberal 9.0%)
  • Frankston (Labor over Liberal 8.7%)
  • Sydenham (Labor over Liberal 8.7%)
  • Bellarine (Labor over Liberal 8.5%)
  • Narre Warren South (Labor over Liberal 8.5%)
  • Point Cook (Labor over Liberal 8.3%)
  • Mordialloc (Labor over Liberal 8.2%)
  • Swing needed for Liberal-National majority: 8.0%


  • Bentleigh (Labor over Liberal 8.0%)

  • Marginal Labor (4-8%)

  • Monbulk (Labor over Liberal 7.5%)
  • Ringwood (Labor over Greens 7.5%)
  • Box Hill (Labor over Liberal 7.2%)
  • Eureka (Labor over Liberal 7.2%)
  • Greenvale (Labor over Liberal 6.9%)
  • Niddrie (Labor over Liberal 6.7%)
  • Sunbury (Labor over Liberal 6.4%)
  • Ashwood (Labor over Liberal 6.1%)
  • Bayswater (Labor over Liberal 4.6%)
  • Melton (Labor over Liberal 4.6%)
  • Yan Yean (Labor over Liberal 4.5%)

  • Very marginal Labor (below 4%)

  • Glen Waverley (Labor over Liberal 3.3%)
  • Ripon (Labor over Greens 3.0%)
  • Hastings (Labor over Liberal 1.4%)
  • Pakenham (Labor over Liberal 0.4%)
  • Bass (Labor over Liberal 0.2%)




  • Very marginal Liberal/National (below 4%)

  • Croydon (Liberal over Labor 1.4%)
  • Hawthorn (Liberal over Labor 1.7%)
  • Polwarth (Liberal over Labor 1.8%)
  • Caulfield (Liberal over Labor 2.1%)
  • Rowville (Liberal over Labor 3.7%)

  • Marginal Liberal/National (4-8%)

  • Kew (Liberal over Labor 4.0%)
  • Brighton (Liberal over Labor 4.2%)
  • Warrandyte (Liberal over Labor 4.2%)
  • Morwell (Nationals over Labor 4.4%)
  • Berwick (Liberal over Labor 4.7%)
  • Sandringham (Liberal over Labor 5.1%)
  • Evelyn (Liberal over Labor 5.2%)
  • Bulleen (Liberal over Labor 5.9%)
  • Nepean (Liberal over Labor 6.7%)
  • Eildon (Liberal over Labor 7.1%)

  • Fairly safe Liberal/National (8-12%)

  • South-West Coast (Liberal over Labor 8.0%)
  • Malvern (Liberal over Labor 8.3%)
  • Euroa (Nationals over Labor 9.9%)

  • Safe Liberal/National (12-16%)

  • Narracan (Liberal over Labor 12.7%)
  • Gippsland South (Nationals over Labor 15.3%)

  • Very safe Liberal/National (over 16%)

  • Ovens Valley (Nationals over Labor 18.0%)
  • Lowan (Nationals over Labor 21.6%)
  • Murray Plains (Nationals over Labor 22.9%)
  • Gippsland East (Nationals over Labor 23.9%)

  • Non-two-party seats

  • Benambra (Liberal over Independent 0.9%)
  • Brunswick (Greens over Labor 13.5%)
  • Footscray (Labor over Greens 4.2%)
  • Melbourne (Greens over Labor 10.2%)
  • Mildura (Nationals over Independent 1.2%)
  • Mornington (Liberal over Independent 0.7%)
  • Northcote (Labor over Greens 0.2%)
  • Pascoe Vale (Labor over Greens 2.0%)
  • Prahran (Greens over Liberal 12.0%)
  • Preston (Labor over Greens 2.1%)
  • Richmond (Greens over Labor 7.2%)
  • Shepparton (Nationals over Independent 6.8%)

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