Adam Carr's Election Archive

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Victorian state election, 28 November 2026
Bayswater District

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Location: Bayswater, Ferntree Gully, Wantirna
Legislative Council: North-Eastern Metropolitan Region

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Enrolment 2022 election: 49,707
Enrolment June 2026: 51,051 (up 02.7%)

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Relevant demographics (2021 census)

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High income: 20.4% (Aust average 22.6%)
Renting: 25.1% (Aust average 30.6%)
Paying a mortgage: 41.0% (Aust average 35.0%)
Couples with children: 59.0% (Aust average 43.7%)
Born overseas: 26.9% (Aust average 27.7%)
Chinese speakers: 6.7% (Aust average 3.9%)
No religion: 47.0% (Aust average 38.9%)
University graduate: 26.4% (Aust average 26.3%)
Professional / managerial: 35.2% (Aust average 37.7%)

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Sitting member: Jackson Taylor (Labor): Elected 2018, 2022. Retiring 2026

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2018 Labor majority over Liberal: 00.4%
2021 redistricting: Liberal over Labor 00.6%
2022 Labor majority over Liberal: 04.2%

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Status: Marginal Labor

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Bayswater was created in 1992, replacing the previous seat of Ringwood (there is now a new seat of Ringwood adjoining Bayswater). It is a uniformly middle-class seat, taking in a string of suburbs along the Mountain Highway, from Wantira in the west to The Basin at the foot of the Dandenongs. Like all the eastern suburban seats, it is attracting increasing numbers of Chinese and other Asian immigrants.

Bayswater was held by the Liberal Party until the Bracks Labor landslide election of 2002. Peter Lockwood, who won the seat at that election, was defeated in 2006 by Heidi Victoria, who held it fairly comfortably in 2010 and 2014. In 2018 she was narrowly defeated by Jackson Taylor, a police officer and Knox City councillor. The 2021 redistricting gave the seat a notional Liberal majority, but Taylor easily retained the seat - a result emblematic of the Liberal Party's declining support in the eastern suburbs.

Taylor is retiring at the 2026 election. He clearly has a substantial personal vote, so despite its 4.2% margin the seat will be at risk for Labor if there is any swing to the Liberals in the eastern suburbs.

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2022 results

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Boundaries following 2021 redistricting

See full-size map

Candidates:

Julie Buxton Australian Labor Party	Alec Ferguson Victorian Socialists	David Kitchen Liberal Party

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Candidate websites

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Julie Buxton (Labor)

Alec Ferguson (Vic Socialists)

David Kitchen (Liberal)

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