Adam Carr's Election Archive

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Victorian state election, 28 November 2026
Croydon District

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Location: Croydon, Kilsyth, Mooroolbark
Legislative Council: North-Eastern Metropolitan Region

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Enrolment 2022 election: 52,544
Enrolment June 2026: 54,919 (up 4.5%)

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Relevant demographics (2021 census)

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High income: 22.2% (Aust average 22.6%)
Renting: 22.9% (Aust average 30.6%)
Paying a mortgage: 41.0% (Aust average 35.0%)
Couples with children: 59.0% (Aust average 43.7%)
Born overseas: 23.8% (Aust average 27.7%)
No religion: 46.2% (Aust average 38.9%)
University graduate: 26.9% (Aust average 26.3%)
Professional / managerial: 37.5% (Aust average 37.7%)

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Sitting member: Hon David Hodgett (Liberal): Elected 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022. Retiring 2026

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2018 Labor majority over Liberal: 02.1%
2021 redistricting: Liberal majority over Labor 01.0%
2022 Labor majority over Liberal: 01.4%

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Status: Very marginal Liberal

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Croydon was created at the 2014 election, replacing the seat of Kilsyth which existed from 2002 to 2014, and before that Mooroolbark, which was created in 1992. All these seats covered the same area on the north-eastern fringe of Melbourne, an area of generally middle-class suburbia, now with an affluent, home-owning and and ageing population. This was once the Victoriam Liberal Party's heartland, but it has increasingly drifted to Labor over the past 20 years. The Labor vote is strongest in central Croydon and in Mooroolbak, and weakest in the more affluent Croydon Hills area.

Labor's Dymphna Beard won Kilsyth in the Bracks landslide of 2002, but in 2006 the seat returned to the Liberal fold when David Hodgett was elected. Hodgett was Minister for Ports, Major Projects and Manufacturing in the Napthine government and was Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party from 2014 to 2018. He will retire at the 2026 election.

At the 2022 election Hodgett had a majority of only 1.4%, and Croydon is now the Liberal Party's most marginal seat. It seems unlikely that there can be any further swing to Labor in 2026, but with the loss of Hodgett's personal vote the seat might be at risk if Labor's position in the eastern suburbs holds up.

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2022 results

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Boundaries following 2021 redistricting

See full-size map

Candidates:

Richard Farr Australian Labor Party	Lini Fernando Australian Greens	Beth Grimshaw Victorian Socialists

Grant Hutchinson Liberal Party	David Vanderwolf Independent

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