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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Victorian state election, 28 November 2026
Carrum District
Location: Carrum, Patterson Lakes, Seaford
Legislative Council:
South-Eastern Metropolitan Region
Enrolment 2022 election: 51,265
Enrolment June 2026: 54,087 (up 05.5%)
Relevant demographics (2021 census)
High income: 19.9% (Aust average 22.6%)
Renting: 25.4% (Aust average 30.6%)
Paying a mortgage: 43.0% (Aust average 35.0%)
Couples with children: 58.0% (Aust average 43.7%)
Born overseas: 23.6% (Aust average 27.7%)
No religion: 48.1% (Aust average 38.9%)
University graduate: 19.7% (Aust average 26.3%)
Professional / managerial: 31.6% (Aust average 37.7%)
Sitting member: Hon Sonya Kilkenny (Labor): Elected 2014, 2018, 2022
Attorney-General
Minister for Planning
Minister for Violence Reduction
2018 Labor majority over Liberal: 12.0%
2022 Labor majority over Liberal: 09.9%
Status: Fairly safe Labor
Carrum was created in 1976, taking in the lower bayside suburbs between Frankston and Mentone. Subsequent redistrictings have pushed it further south and extended it inland, to take in growth areas such as Carrum Downs and Patterson Lakes. Overall a fairly affluent area, it has a mix of low income areas around Seaford and Carrum, along with wealthy developments such as Patterson Lakes.
Carrum was won for Labor in 1976 by Ian Cathie, who went on to be a minister in the Cain government. The Liberals won it in 1996, but lost it back to Labor in 1999. Jenny Lindell held the seat from 1999 to 2010, and was the first woman to be Speaker of the Legislative Assembly. She was defeated in 2010 by Donna Bauer, who also only held it for one term, before losing very narrowly to Labor in 2014.
Sonya Kilkenny, Labor MLA for Carrum since 2014, was a lawyer and law tutor before entering politics. She also worked for the Kimberley Land Council and the Australian Children's Television Foundation. She been a minister since the 2002 election. In July 2026 she put herself forward as a candidate to succeed Jacinta Allan, but was dissuaded from contesting a leadership ballot.
Members: Ian Cathie (Labor) 1976-88, Mal Sandon (Labor) 1988-96, David Lean (Liberal) 1996-99, Jenny Lindell (Labor) 1999-2010, Donna Bauer (Liberal) 2010-14, Sonya Kilkenny (Labor) since 2014.
2022 results
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Boundaries following
2021 redistricting |
See full-size map
Candidates:
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Hon Sonya Kilkenny
Australian Labor Party |
Jeff Shelley
Liberal Party |
Candidate websites
Sonya Kilkenny (Labor)
Jeff Shelley (Liberal)
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