Adam Carr's Election Archive

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Victorian state election, 28 November 2026
Hawthorn District

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Location: Camberwell, Canterbury, Hawthorn
Legislative Council: Southern Metropolitan Region

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Enrolment 2022 election: 50,080
Enrolment June 2026: 51,368 (up 2.6%)

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Relevant demographics (2021 census)

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High income: 37.6% (Aust average 22.6%)
Renting: 36.1% (Aust average 30.6%)
Paying a mortgage: 28.0% (Aust average 35.0%)
Couples with children: 60.0% (Aust average 43.7%)
Born overseas: 29.5% (Aust average 27.7%)
Born in China: 5.1% (Aust average 2.3%)
Chinese speakers: 8.4% (Aust average 4%)
No religion: 47.4% (Aust average 38.9%)
University graduate: 55.6% (Aust average 26.3%)
Professional / managerial: 61.4% (Aust average 37.7%)

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Sitting member: John Pesutto (Liberal): Elected 2014. Defeated 2018. Elected 2022

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2018 Labor majority over Liberal: 00.4%
2021 redistricting: Labor majority over Liberal 00.6%
2022 Liberal majority over Labor: 01.7%

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Status: Very marginal Liberal

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Hawthorn was created in 1889, and for most of that time it has been a reliably conservative seat. Hawthorn is a wealthy area with a high proportion of graduates, professionals and high-income households. The seat has been held by a succession of conservative ministers, including two premiers, Sir William McPherson and Ted Baillieu. It has only twice elected a Labor member, in 1952 and 2018. Its current member, John Pesutto, was Liberal Party leader from 2022 to 2024, when he was forced out by factional conflict. Recent members: Phil Gude (Liberal) 1985-99, Ted Baillieu (Liberal) 1999-2014, John Pesutto (Liberal) 2014-18, John O Kennedy (Labor) 2018-22, Pesutto again from 2022. Although the current Liberal majority is only 1.7%, it seems very unlikely that Labor can repeat the upset of 2018.

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2022 results

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Boundaries following 2021 redistricting

See full-size map

Candidates:

Clive Crosby Australian Labor Party	Shima Ibuki Independent	Tess McEnearney Victorian Socialists

John Pesutto Liberal Party	Kylie Rocha Australian Greens

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