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Australian state and territory elections since 1990
Guide to the 2022
Australian election
Guide to the 2019
Australian election
Guide to the 2018
Victorian state election
Guide to the 2016
Australian election
Historical Gallery of the
Australian Parliament
Victorian Election Archive:
Victorian elections since 1843

Psephos: Adam Carr's Election Archive
Australian federal election 2025

List of seats in pendulum order

The margins shown here are as calculated by Antony Green (Vic and WA) and Ben Raue (NSW).

See these seats in alphabetical order


Very safe Labor (majority over 16%)

  • Newcastle, NSW (Labor over Liberal 17.9%)
  • Grayndler, NSW (Labor over Greens 17.1%)
  • Brand, WA (Labor over Liberal 17.0%)
  • Fremantle, WA (Labor over Liberal 16.8%)
  • Fraser, Vic (Labor over Liberal 16.6%)
  • Sydney, NSW (Labor over Greens 16.5%)
  • Kingston, SA (Labor over Liberal 16.4%)


    • Safe Labor (majority 12-16%)

  • Fenner, ACT (Labor over Liberal 15.7%)
  • Scullin, Vic (Labor over Liberal 15.6%)
  • Cunningham, NSW (Labor over Liberal 15.1%)
  • Watson, NSW (Labor over Liberal 15.1%)
  • Perth, WA (Labor over Liberal 14.4%)
  • Chifley, NSW (Labor over Liberal 13.7%)
  • Franklin, Tas (Labor over Liberal 13.7%)
  • Kingsford Smith, NSW (Labor over Liberal 13.3%)
  • Blaxland, NSW (Labor over Liberal 13.1%)
  • Burt, WA (Labor over Liberal 13.1%)
  • Bean, ACT (Labor over Liberal 13.0%)
  • Ballarat, Vic (Labor over Liberal 13.0%)
  • Spence, SA (Labor over Liberal 12.9%)
  • Lalor, Vic (Labor over Liberal 12.8%)
  • Corio, Vic (Labor over Liberal 12.5%)
  • Maribyrnong, Vic (Labor over Liberal 12.5%)
  • Calwell, Vic (Labor over Liberal 12.4%)
  • Canberra, ACT (Labor over Greens 12.2%)
  • Jagajaga, Vic (Labor over Liberal 12.2%)
  • Macnamara, Vic (Labor over Liberal 12.2%)
  • Bendigo, Vic (Labor over Liberal 12.1%)
  • Barton, NSW (Labor over Liberal 12.0%)


    • Fairly safe Labor (majority 8-12%)

  • Adelaide, SA (Labor over Liberal 11.9%)
  • Hotham, Vic (Labor over Liberal 11.6%)
  • Oxley, Qld (Labor over Liberal 11.6%)
  • Gellibrand, Vic (Labor over Liberal 11.2%)
  • Makin, SA (Labor over Liberal 10.8%)
  • Lilley, Qld (Labor over Liberal 10.5%)
  • McMahon, NSW (Labor over Liberal 10.5%)
  • Gorton, Vic (Labor over Liberal 10.0%)
  • Hasluck, WA (Labor over Liberal 10.0%)
  • Macarthur, NSW (Labor over Liberal 9.8%)
  • Cowan, WA (Labor over Liberal 9.7%)
  • Isaacs, Vic (Labor over Liberal 9.4%)
  • Solomon, NT (Labor over CLP 9.4%)
  • Swan, WA (Labor over Liberal 9.3%)
  • Moreton, Qld (Labor over Liberal 9.1%)
  • Rankin, Qld (Labor over Liberal 9.1%)
  • Hindmarsh, SA (Labor over Liberal 9.0%)
  • Pearce, WA (Labor over Liberal 8.4%)
  • Whitlam, NSW (Labor over Liberal 8.3%)
  • Richmond, NSW (Labor over Nationals 8.2%)
  • Greenway, NSW (Labor over Liberal 8.0%)


    • Marginal Labor (majority 4-8%)

  • Cooper, Vic (Labor over Greens 7.8%)
  • Corangamite, Vic (Labor over Liberal 7.8%)
  • Hawke, Vic (Labor over Liberal 7.6%)
  • Holt, Vic (Labor over Liberal 7.1%)
  • Dunkley, Vic (Labor over Liberal 6.8%)
  • Dobell, NSW (Labor over Liberal 6.5%)
  • Macquarie, NSW (Labor over Liberal 6.3%)
  • Eden-Monaro, NSW (Labor over Liberal 6.1%)
  • Shortland, NSW (Labor over Liberal 6.0%)
  • Bruce, Vic (Labor over Liberal 5.5%)
  • Werriwa, NSW (Labor over Liberal 5.3%)
  • Blair, Qld (Labor over Liberal 5.2%)
  • Reid, NSW (Labor over Liberal 5.2%)
  • Wills, Vic (Labor over Greens 5.2%)
  • Hunter, NSW (Labor over Liberal 4.8%)


    • Very marginal Labor (majority below 4%)

  • Parramatta, NSW (Labor over Liberal 3.7%)
  • Boothby, SA (Labor over Liberal 3.3%)
  • McEwen, Vic (Labor over Liberal 3.3%)
  • Bullwinkel, WA (Labor over Liberal 3.2%)
  • Chisholm, Vic (Labor over Liberal 3.2%)
  • Tangney, WA (Labor over Liberal 2.9%)
  • Paterson, NSW (Labor over Liberal 2.6%)
  • Robertson, NSW (Labor over Liberal 2.3%)
  • Lingiari, NT (Labor over CLP 1.0%)
  • Lyons, Tas (Labor over Liberal 0.9%)
  • Menzies, Vic (Labor over Liberal 0.5%)
  • Gilmore, NSW (Labor over Liberal 0.2%)


    • Very marginal Liberal/National (majority below 4%)

  • Deakin, Vic (Liberal over Labor 0.0%)
  • Bennelong, NSW (Liberal over Labor 0.1%)
  • Sturt, SA (Liberal over Labor 0.5%)
  • Moore, WA (Liberal over Labor 0.9%)
  • Canning, WA (Liberal over Labor 1.2%)
  • Bass, Tas (Liberal over Labor 1.4%)
  • Casey, Vic (Liberal over Labor 1.4%)
  • Dickson, Qld (Liberal over Labor 1.7%)
  • Aston, Vic (Liberal over Labor 2.6%)
  • Banks, NSW (Liberal over Labor 2.6%)
  • Monash, Vic (Liberal over Labor 2.9%)
  • Longman, Qld (Liberal over Labor 3.1%)
  • Leichhardt, Qld (Liberal over Labor 3.4%)
  • Hughes, NSW (Liberal over Labor 3.5%)
  • Flynn, Qld (Nationals over Labor 3.8%)


    • Marginal Liberal/National (majority 4-8%)

  • Bradfield, NSW (Liberal over Independent 4.2%)
  • Forrest, WA (Liberal over Labor 4.2%)
  • Petrie, Qld (Liberal over Labor 4.4%)
  • Durack, WA (Liberal over Labor 4.6%)
  • Bowman, Qld (Liberal over Labor 5.5%)
  • Lindsay, NSW (Liberal over Labor 6.1%)
  • Flinders, Vic (Liberal over Labor 6.2%)
  • Capricornia, Qld (Nationals over Labor 6.6%)
  • O'Connor, WA (Liberal over Labor 6.7%)
  • Groom, Qld (Liberal over Independent 6.9%)
  • Hume, NSW (Liberal over Labor 6.9%)
  • Bonner, Qld (Liberal over Labor 7.4%)
  • Berowra, NSW (Liberal over Labor 7.5%)


    • Fairly safe Liberal/National (majority 8-12%)

  • Braddon, Tas (Liberal over Labor 8.0%)
  • La Trobe, Vic (Liberal over Labor 8.4%)
  • Forde, Qld (Liberal over Labor 8.6%)
  • Wannon, Vic (Liberal over Labor 8.6%)
  • Fairfax, Qld (Liberal over Labor 9.0%)
  • McPherson, Qld (Liberal over Labor 9.3%)
  • Cowper, NSW (Nationals over Labor 9.5%)
  • Riverina, NSW (Nationals over Labor 9.7%)
  • Grey, SA (Liberal over Labor 10.1%)
  • Hinkler, Qld (Nationals over Labor 10.1%)
  • Dawson, Qld (Nationals over Labor 10.4%)
  • Mitchell, NSW (Liberal over Labor 10.5%)
  • Fadden, Qld (Liberal over Labor 10.6%)
  • Page, NSW (National over Labor 10.7%)
  • Wright, Qld (Liberal over Labor 10.9%)
  • Moncrieff, Qld (Liberal over Labor 11.2%)
  • Wide Bay, Qld (Nationals over Labor 11.3%)
  • Cook, NSW (Liberal over Labor 11.7%)
  • Herbert, Qld (Liberal over Labor 11.8%)


    • Safe Liberal/National (majority 12-16%)

  • Fisher, Qld (Liberal over Labor 12.7%)
  • Lyne, NSW (Nationals over Labor 13.8%)
  • New England, NSW (Nationals over Labor 15.2%)
  • Calare, NSW (Nationals over Labor 15.5%)
  • Nicholls, Vic (Nationals over Labor 15.9%)


    • Very safe Liberal/National (majority over 16%)

  • Farrer, NSW (Liberal over Labor 16.4%)
  • Barker, SA (Liberal over Labor 16.6%)
  • Parkes, NSW (Nationals over Labor 18.1%)
  • Mallee, Vic (Nationals over Labor 19.0%)
  • Gippsland, Vic (Nationals over Labor 20.5%)
  • Maranoa, Qld (Nationals over Labor 22.1%)

    • Non-two-party seats

  • Brisbane, Qld (Greens over Liberal 3.7%)
  • Clark, Tas (Independent over Labor 20.8%)
  • Curtin, WA (Independent over Liberal 1.3%)
  • Fowler, NSW (Independent over Labor 1.4%)
  • Goldstein, Vic (Independent over Liberal 2.9%)
  • Griffith, Qld (Greens over Liberal 10.5%)
  • Indi, Vic (Independent over Liberal 8.9%)
  • Kennedy, Qld (KAP over Nationals 13.1%)
  • Kooyong, Vic (Independent over Liberal 2.9%)
  • Mackellar, NSW (Independent over Liberal 3.3%)
  • Mayo, SA (CA over Liberal 12.3%)
  • Melbourne, Vic (Greens over Labor 6.6%)
  • Ryan, Qld (Greens over Liberal 2.7%)
  • Warringah, NSW (Independent over Liberal 9.4%)
  • Wentworth, NSW (Independent over Liberal 9.0%)

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