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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Monash, Victoria
Named for: General Sir John Monash (1865-1931), World War I military commander
Eastern Victoria: Korrumburra, Leongatha, Moe, Wonthaggi, Warragul
Enrolment at 2019 election: 112,516
Enrolment at 2022 election: 111,082 (-01.1)
1999 republic referendum: No 63.6
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 62.7
2023 Voice referendum: No 65.7
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Sitting member: Russell Broadbent (Independent): Elected (for Corinella) 1990. Defeated 1993. Elected (for McMillan) 1996. Defeated 1998. Elected 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, (for Monash) 2019, 2022
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2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.8% *
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.4% *
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 11.8% *
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 6.6% *
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 7.4%
2022 Liberal majority over Labor: 2.9%
2025 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 2.9%
* as McMillan
Status: Very marginal Liberal
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Mary Aldred
Liberal Party |
Division of Monash
Monash was created by the 2018 redistribution, when the seat of
McMillan, which was created in 1949, was renamed.*
The seat has always been located in the semi-rural West Gippsland region of Victoria. Although for most of its history it included the coal-mining towns of the Latrobe Valley, it was a safe Liberal seat until the 1970s, and was not won by Labor until 1980. Since then it
has been a marginal seat, changing hands several times, although since 2013 it has been reasonably safe for the Liberal incumbent.
Socially, the seat consists of two parts. The Latrobe Valley (most of which is now in the seat of Gippsland) has declining
working-class towns like Moe, with low-income families and high unemployment. South Gippsland is a dairy farming area,
with its coastal areas being colonised by urban exiles. Labor's remaining strength is in the Moe-Newborough area and in
the old coal-mining town of Wonthaggi, while the Liberals dominate the rural areas. The Princes Highway towns of Drouin and
Warragul are suburbanising.
Between 1980 and 2004, McMillan changed hands six times, and was one of the most hotly-contested seats in the country.
Russell Broadbent first won it in 1996, but was defeated in 1998 by
Christian Zahra, who became the youngest member of the
House. Zahra retained the seat in 2001, but was greatly disadvantaged by the 2004 redistribution, which moved
the Labor stronghold of Morwell into Gippsland. Broadbent then regained the seat and has held it fairly easily since,
although there was a sizeable swing to Labor in 2016.
Russell Broadbent, Liberal MP for
Corinella from 1990 to 1993 and for McMillan from 1996 to 1998 and from 2004, was a
local retailer and Pakenham Shire Councillor before his election. He has never left the back bench, but has a fairly
high profile because of his dissent from some Liberal policies, notably on immigration. Over 30 years he has
accumulated a large personal vote which partly explains the substantial Liberal margin in what was once a very marginal
seat.
The 2018 redistribution removed the dormitory suburb of Pakenham from the renamed seat, while adding semi-rural
territory on the east coast of Western Port, plus Phillip Island. This slightly increased the Liberal majority. The 2024 redistribution
has left the seat unchanged.
In November 2023 Broadbent lost Liberal preselection to Mary Aldred, daughter of long-serving Liberal MP Ken Aldred. He then
resigned from the Liberal Party and has sat as an independent since. He is now 73, and it is not clear if he intends recontesting the seat.
* The renaming followed a campaign to draw attention to
Angus McMillan's role in the massacres of Indigenous people
in South Gippsland in the 1840s.
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