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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Warringah, New South Wales
Named for: Sydney region of Warringah (Indigenous name for Middle Harbour, recorded by James Larmer in 1856 as "Warrin-ga")
Northern Sydney: Balgowlah, Brookvale, Manly, Mosman, North Sydney
Enrolment at 2019 election: 105,077
Enrolment at 2022 election: 105,278 (+00.3)
1999 republic referendum: Yes 54.4
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 75.0
2023 Voice referendum: Yes 59.5
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 9.5%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 13.1%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 15.4%
2016 Liberal majority over Greens: 11.6%
2019 Independent majority over Liberal: 7.2%
2022 Independent majority over Liberal: 11.0%
2025 notional Independent majority over Liberal: 9.4%
Status: Fairly safe Independent
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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 |
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Bonnie Harvey
Liberal Party |
Jaimee Rogers
Liberal Party |
Zali Steggall
Independent |
Celine Varghese-Fell
Aust Labor Party |
Division of Warringah
Warringah was created in 1922, covering the eastern part of Sydney's North Shore, based on Manly. Subsequent
redistributions have reduced the seat in size without changing its social or political character. It is the
wealthiest electorate in Australia, with a very high median income level, a high proportion of graduates and a high proportion
of people in professional and managerial occupations.
Labor has never come close to winning Warringah, but the Manly area does have a history of support for independents,
including
Percy Spender, who won Warringah as an independent in 1937 before becoming a Cabinet minister under Menzies,
and
Peter Macdonald, an independent state MP, who came second in Warringah in 2001.
Tony Abbott was a journalist for The Bulletin and head of Australians for Constitutional Monarchy before his election in 1994. He was a protege of Prime Minister
John Howard and was a Cabinet minister
from 2001. In December 2009 he resigned from the opposition front bench in protest at
Malcolm Turnbull's agreement to
support the Rudd Government's emission trading scheme. This caused a crisis in the Liberal Party which ended with Abbott
seizing the leadership.
At the 2010 election Abbott performed well enough to force Labor into minority government, and his relentless methods of
opposition helped him lead the Coalition to victory in 2013. As Prime Minister, however, his dogmatic style, harsh
economic policies and quixotic actions such as restoring knighthoods led to a rapid decline in his standing with the
public, reflected in poor polls. More importantly, the domineering behaviour of his chief of staff,
Peta Credlin, alienated his senior colleagues. In September 2015 Turnbull succeeded in regaining the leadership, making Abbott the third successive PM to be deposed by their own party.
Abbott spent the next three years sabotaging Turnbull in every way he could short of open rebellion. He did not
aspire to regain the Liberal leadership for himself, but was determined to make sure Turnbull was deposed, and hoped he
would return to Cabinet under a more conservative successor. He got his way when Turnbull was forced to resign in August
2018, but his preferred leader,
Peter Dutton, was defeated by
Scott Morrison, and Abbott remained on the backbench.
Abbott's behaviour and his unbending conservative views alienated many voters in Warringah, which like
most affluent urban areas is increasingly liberal on many issues - it voted 75% yes in the marriage equality survey. His
defeat by an independent candidate was nevertheless one of the great shocks of the 2019 election.
Zali Steggall, independent MP for Warringah since 2029, was a noted Olympic skier, winning a bronze medal at the Nagano
Winter Olympics in 1998 and a gold medal at the World Ski Championships in 1999. She was born in Manly and returned to practise
law there after her skiing career ended in 2002. She campaigned strongly on climate change, about which Abbott is a denialist.
She won comfortably in 2019, and increased her majority in 2002 against Scott Morrison's handpicked candidate Katherine Deves.
The 2024 redistribution has added a block of suburbs around Cremorne and North Sydney. The Liberal candidate in 2025 is Jaimee Rogers, a sports commentator. The Labor candidate is Celine Varghese-Fell, director of a local out-of-school-hours service.
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