Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive

Adam Carr's Election Archive

Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Dunkley, Victoria

Named for: Louisa Dunkley (1866-1927), trade unionist and campaigner for equal pay for women


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Southern Melbourne: Carrum, Carrum Downs, Frankston, Langwarrin, Seaford

Enrolment at 2019 election: 110,685
Enrolment at 2022 election: 111,567 (+00.9)

1999 republic referendum: No 54.7
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 72.0
2023 Voice referendum: No 55.8

Sitting member: Jodie Belyea (Labor): Elected 2024 by-election


2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.0%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.0%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.6%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.4%
2019 Labor majority over Liberal: 2.7%
2022 Labor majority over Liberal: 6.3%
2024 by-election Labor majority over Liberal: 2.7%
2025 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 6.8%

Status 2022: Marginal Labor
Labor two-party vote 1984-2022


  • 2022 results
  • 2024 by-election results
  • Statistics and history

  • Announced candidates:

    Jodie Belyea
    Australian Labor Party

    Division of Dunkley

    Dunkley was created in 1984, based on Frankston, a suburban centre at the southern end of Melbourne's urban sprawl, which had been in Flinders since Federation. Although it has a lower proportion of families with dependent children than most outer suburban seats, it is still sensitive to interest rates and similar economic issues. It has among the highest proportion of people working in maufacturing and construction of any seat, and correspondingly lower levels of university graduates and people in professional and managerial occupations. It also has a low level of non English-speaking households for an urban seat.

    A very marginal seat when it was created, Dunkley became better for the Liberals at recent elections. Frankston itself tends to vote Labor, but subsequent redistributions extended the seat further south into solidly Liberal territory around Mt Eliza and Mornington. The 2024 redistribution has removed most of Mount Eliza while adding Labor-voting Seaford, improving Labor's position.

    Bruce Billson won Dunkley in 1996 and held it for 20 years, despite close calls in 1998 and 2010. He was a junior minister in both the Howard and Abbott governments, before being dropped by Malcolm Turnbull. He retired at the 2016 election, and was succeeded by Chris Crewther, who survived a 4.1% swing to Labor. But the 2018 redistribution wiped out Crewther's majority, and he was defeated in 2019.

    Peta Murphy, who won Dunkley 2019, was a criminal defence lawyer and legal aid public advocate before entering politics. She was easily re-elected in 2022 but died of cancer in December 2023. At the March 2024 by-election, Labor retained the seat with only an average by-election swing against the government.

    Jodie Belyea, Labor MP for Dunkley since the 2024 by-election, was a manager with a recruitment and training organisation before her election

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