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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Dunkley, Victoria
Named for: Louisa Dunkley (1866-1927), trade unionist and campaigner for equal pay for women
Southern Melbourne: Carrum, Carrum Downs, Frankston, Langwarrin, Seaford
Enrolment at 2019 election: 110,685
Enrolment at 2022 election: 111,567 (+00.9)
1999 republic referendum: No 54.7
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 72.0
2023 Voice referendum: No 55.8
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Sitting member: Jodie Belyea (Labor): Elected 2024 by-election
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2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.0%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.0%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.6%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.4%
2019 Labor majority over Liberal: 2.7%
2022 Labor majority over Liberal: 6.3%
2024 by-election Labor majority over Liberal: 2.7%
2025 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 6.8%
Status 2022: Marginal Labor
Labor two-party vote 1984-2022
2022 results
2024 by-election results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Jodie Belyea
Aust Labor Party |
Nathan Conroy
Liberal Party |
Matt Maber
Aust Greens |
Jessica Davis (One Nation)
Peter Nicholes (Family First)
Division of Dunkley
Dunkley was created in 1984, based on Frankston, a suburban centre at the southern end of Melbourne's urban sprawl, which had been in
Flinders since Federation. Although it
has a lower proportion of families with dependent children than most outer suburban seats, it is still sensitive to interest rates
and similar economic issues. It has among the highest proportion of people working in maufacturing and construction of any seat, and
correspondingly lower levels of university graduates and people in professional and managerial occupations. It also has a low level of
non English-speaking households for an urban seat.
A very marginal seat when it was created, Dunkley became better for the Liberals at recent elections. Frankston itself tends to
vote Labor, but subsequent redistributions extended the seat further south into solidly Liberal territory around Mt Eliza and Mornington.
The 2024 redistribution has removed most of Mount Eliza while adding Labor-voting Seaford, improving Labor's position.
Bruce Billson won Dunkley in 1996 and held it for 20 years, despite close calls in 1998 and 2010. He was a junior minister in both the Howard
and Abbott governments, before being dropped by
Malcolm Turnbull. He retired at the 2016 election, and was succeeded by
Chris Crewther, who
survived a 4.1% swing to Labor. But the 2018 redistribution wiped out Crewther's majority, and he was defeated in 2019.
Peta Murphy, who won Dunkley 2019, was a criminal defence lawyer and legal aid public advocate before entering politics. She was easily re-elected in 2022 but died of cancer in December 2023. At the March 2024 by-election, Labor
retained the seat with only an average by-election swing against the government.
Jodie Belyea, Labor MP for Dunkley since the 2024 by-election, was a manager with a recruitment and training organisation before her election. The Liberal candidate will be former Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy, who also contested the 2024 by-election.
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