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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Ryan, Queensland
Named for: Hon T J (Thomas) Ryan (1876-1921), Qld MP 1909-19, Premier
1915-19, federal MP 1919-21
Western Brisbane: Indooroopilly, Kenmore, Moggill, The Gap, Toowong
Enrolment at 2019 election: 106,256
Enrolment at 2022 election: 111,363 (+04.8)
1999 republic referendum: Yes 55.3
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 72.7
2023 Voice referendum: No 52.7
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2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 3.8%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 7.2%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 8.5%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 9.1%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 6.0%
2022 Greens majority over Liberal 2.7%
Status: Very marginal Greens
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Maggie Forrest
Liberal Party |
Rebecca Hack
Australian Labor Party |
Elizabeth Watson-Brown
Australian Greens |
Division of Ryan
Ryan was created in 1949, covering the inner western suburbs of Brisbane, the wealthiest part of the city.
Subsequent redistributions have extended the seat to the west and south, without substantially changing its
character. It has among the highest levels of median family income and of people in professional and
managerial occupations of any electorate. Unlike most other wealthy inner-city, electorates, however, it also has fairly
high levels of families with dependent children and of dwellings being purchased: it is thus a high-income mortgage
belt seat, with many people paying mortgages on large family homes, a fact which makes them very sensitive to
interest rates and similar economic issues.
Labor has only won Ryan once, at a 2001 by-election at the height of the Howard Government's unpopularity. Apart
from that, until 2022 the seat was safely Liberal, although none of its members have risen to any great heights.
John Moore was Defence Minister in the Howard government. In 2010
Michael Johnson was dropped as the sitting member
after accusations of illegal fundraising. His successor,
Jane Prentice, was an Assistant Minister from 2016 to 2918, but
was disendorsed for the 2019 election.
Julian Simmonds, a lawyer who was elected Brisbane City Council when he was 26, won Ryan at the 2019 election. He sustained a substantial swing to Labor, making Ryan a marginal seat. Meanwhile, the Greens vote in Ryan rose from 9.8% in 2004 to 20.4% in 2019. In 2022 it surged to 30.2%, pushing Labor into third place and handing the seat to the Greens - one of the biggest surprises of that election.
Elizabeth Watson-Brown, Greens MP for Ryan since 2022, was an architect and an adjunct professor of architecture at the University of Queensland before her election. This was the first time the Liberals had lost Ryan at a general election. They will be keen to regain it in 2025, but Liberal leader Peter Dutton has made little effort to win back the upper-income voters who deserted the Liberals in seats like Ryan in 2022. The Liberal candidate will be
Maggie Forrest, a barrister. The Labor candidate will be Rebecca Hack, a teacher.
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