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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Page, New South Wales
Named for: Rt Hon Sir Earle Page (1880-1961), federal MP 1919-61, Leader of the Country Party 1921-39, Prime Minister 1939.
Northern New South Wales: Casino, Glenreagh, Grafton, Kyogle, Lismore
Enrolment at 2019 election: 122,833
Enrolment at 2022 election: 122,892 (+00.1)
1999 republic referendum: No 61.2
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.0
2023 Voice referendum: No 67.0
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Sitting member: Hon Kevin Hogan (Nationals): Elected 2013, 2016, 2019, 2022
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2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 2.4%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.2%
2013 Nationals majority over Labor: 2.5%
2016 Nationals majority over Labor: 2.3%
2019 Nationals majority over Labor: 9.4%
2022 Nationals majority over Labor: 10.7%
2025 notional Nationals majority over Labor: 10.7%
Status: Fairly safe Nationals
Nationals two-party vote 1984-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Hon Kevin Hogan
The Nationals |
Division of Page
Page was created in 1984 from parts of the federation electorates of
Richmond and
Cowper, and based on the
regional centres of Grafton and Lismore. It has one of the country's lowest levels of median family income,
reflecting its economic base of farming and low-wage tourism jobs, plus its large population of retired
over-65s. Its ageing population is also shown by its low levels of families with dependent children and of
dwellings being purchased. These factors make Page more politically marginal than most rural seats are these
days.
Labor's strongest area is the city of Lismore, where Labor won all of the polling places in 2019, and which elects a
Labor state member. Grafton and Casino are more marginal. The Nationals win most of the smaller rural centres, but Labor and the
Greens dominate the alternative lifestyle area around Nimbin. The seat has not been changed by the 2024 redistribution.
Page's first member was
Ian Robinson, a National Party veteran who had
held Cowper since 1963. Like many country members, he stayed on too long, and in 1990 he was unexpectedly defeated by Labor's
Harry Woods, who was greatly
helped by the aftermath of the National Party's "Joh for Canberra" fiasco. Woods hung on in 1993, but was predictably
defeated in 1996 by the Nationals candidate, former state minister
Ian Causley. Causley had reasonable expectations
of ministerial office in the Howard Government, but was disappointed, and retired in 2007.
The seat was then won by Labor's
Janelle Saffin, a teacher and lawyer and former NSW MLC. Saffin was
re-elected in 2010 but defeated by the Nationals in 2013. The 2016 redistribution removed the Labor-inclined town of Ballina and
added more rural areas to the south, increasing the Nationals majority and helping Hogan defeat an attempt by Saffin to regain
the seat at the 2016 election. There was a substantial swing to the Nationals in 2019, and a further swing in 2022, removing Page from
the marginal seat category.
Kevin Hogan, Nationals MP for Page since 2013, was a teacher in
Casino before his election. He has also worked as a money market and bond trader and as an investment officer for a superannuation
fund. He was Assistant Minister to the Deputy Prime Minister from 2020 to 2022. He is now Shadow Minister for Trade and Tourism.
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