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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Mitchell, New South Wales
Named for: Major Thomas Mitchell (1792-1855), surveyor and explorer of NSW and Victoria
North-western Sydney: Baulkham Hills, Beaumont Hills, Castle Hill, Kellyville, Northmead
Enrolment at 2019 election: 110,402
Enrolment at 2022 election: 121,363 (+10.0)
1999 republic referendum: No 53.1
2018 same-sex marriage survey: No 50.9
2023 Voice referendum: No 59.3
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Sitting member: Hon Alex Hawke (Liberal): Elected 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2022
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2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 11.6%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 17.2%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 22.1%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 17.8%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 18.6%
2022 Liberal majority over Labor: 10.7%
2025 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 10.5%
Status: Fairly safe Liberal
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Hon Alex Hawke
Liberal Party |
Division of Mitchell
Mitchell was created in 1949, based in the outer north-western suburbs of Sydney and the towns of the Hawkesbury
district. Until 1977 it included some working-class suburbs around Blacktown and Toongabbie and was a marginal seat which Labor won in
1961 and again in 1972. Since 1977 it has consisted of a block of suburbs running north from Baulkham Hills: among the most affluent
suburbs in Australia.
Mitchell has the highest proportion of families with dependent children of any seat in Australia, and
also has a high proportion of dwellings being purchased. Mitchell is thus the ultimate high income mortgage belt seat.
This area is also in the heart of Sydney's "Bible belt" of suburbs with strong evangelical Christian communities.
These factors have made Mitchell one of the safest Liberal seats in Australia. It also explain's Mitchell's narrow No vote in the
2018 same-sex marriage survey.
Alan Cadman
won Mitchell for the Liberals in 1974 and held it for over 30 years. His long career on the backbench was
interrupted by four years as a shadow minister in the 1980s and two years as a Parliamentary Secretary. He narrowly
survived a pre-selection challenge in 2004 and retired in 2007.
Alex Hawke, Liberal MP for Mitchell since 2007, had spent six years as an
adviser to state and federal MPs before his election. Partly because of his reputation as a factional warrior, he had to wait some
time to be promoted. He was Assistant Minister for Home Affairs from December 2017, and in August 2018 became Special Minister of
State. From December 2020 until the 2022 election he was Minister for Immigration, Citizenship, Migrant Services and Multicultural
Affairs.
During 2022 Hawke made himself very unpopular with sections of the NSW Liberal Party by acting as Scott Morrison's agent in blocking
Liberal preselections in several NSW seats so that Morrison could personally choose the candidates. Liberal Senator
Concetta Fierravanti-Wells said that "Morrison and Hawke
have ruined the Liberal Party in New South Wales by trampling its constitution." As a result, he was not included in the Coalition's
shadow ministry after the 2022 election.
Boundaries following most recent redistribution:
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