|
|
|
|
| Adam Carr's Election Archive
|
Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Bruce, Victoria
Named for: Rt Hon Stanley Bruce (Viscount Bruce) (1883-1967), federal
MP 1918-29, 1931-33, Prime Minister 1923-29
Eastern Melbourne: Dandenong, Doveton, Endeavour Hills, Hallam, Narre Warren
Enrolment at 2019 election: 109,213
Enrolment at 2022 election: 112,756 (+03.4)
1999 republic referendum: Yes 54.5
2018 same-sex marriage survey: No 53.1
2023 Voice referendum: No 57.5
 |
Sitting member: Julian Hill
(Labor): Elected 2016, 2019, 2022
|
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 8.3%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 8.1%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 1.8%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.1%
2019 Labor majority over Liberal: 14.1%
2022 Labor majority over Liberal: 6.6%
2025 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 5.5%
Status: Marginal Labor
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
 |
 |
Hon Julian Hill
Australian Labor Party |
Zahid Safi
Liberal Party |
Division of Bruce
Bruce was created in 1955, in Melbourne's fast-growing eastern suburbs: at that time it covered the whole outer
eastern suburban area, and by 1966 had over 100,000 voters - unheard-of at that time. In 1969 it was cut back to a
block of suburbs based on Glen Waverley, and on those boundaries it was a fairly safe Liberal seat, although Labor
nearly won it in 1983. The 1996 redistribution, however, moved the seat south to take in the industrial area around
Dandenong, which made it a marginal Labor seat, although it still had a higher than average median income level.
The 2018 redistribution radically changed the seat, cutting out all its Liberal-voting areas and adding
Labor territory from
Holt,
Hotham and
Isaacs
(weakening all three of those seats for Labor). This based
the seat on the Dandenong-Springvale corridor and made it a very safe Labor seat, with no territory in common
with the seat as it existed on its 1969 boundaries.
The first member for Bruce was
Sir Billy Snedden, who was Liberal Treasurer, Leader of the Opposition and Speaker of the
House.
Alan Griffin won the seat for Labor in 1996 after a favourable redistribution and held it for 20 years,
although he was run close in 2013. He was a minister in the Rudd-Gillard government and retired in 2016.
The lucky beneficiary of the 2018 redistribution was Griffin's former staffer and chosen successor, Julian Hill,
Labor MP for Bruce since 2016. Hill held senior positions in the Victorian public service and was a City of Port
Phillip Councillor and the city's youngest Mayor. He is openly gay. The Liberals made a serious bid for Bruce in 2016,
but Hill was not troubled in 2019 or 2022.
The 2021 and 2024 redistributions have partly reversed the changes made in 2018, shifting the seat eastwards into more marginal territory around Berwick, Cranbourne and Narre Warren, and cutting out the Labor strongholds of Noble Park and Springvale.
On these boundaries Bruce is once again a marginal seat. The Liberal candidate in 2025 will be Zahid Safi, a business operator born in Afghanistan.
Back to main page
| |