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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Lindsay, New South Wales
Named for: Sir Norman Lindsay (1879-1969), painter and novelist
Outer western Sydney: Cranebrook, Glenmore Park, Penrith, St Marys, Werrington
Enrolment at 2019 election: 118,801
Enrolment at 2022 election: 124,660 (+05.0)
1999 republic referendum: No 58.9
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 56.2
2023 Voice referendum: No 69.0
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 6.8%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 1.1%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 3.0%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 1.1%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.0%
2022 Liberal majority over Labor: 6.3%
2025 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 6.1%
Status: Marginal Liberal
Liberal two-party vote 1984-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Melissa McIntosh
Liberal Party |
Division of Lindsay
Lindsay was created in 1984, taking in a stretch of Sydney's outer western suburbs based on Penrith. The seat was
one of the most commonly associated with the "Howard battlers": upwardly-mobile skilled workers and contractors
with aspirations to join the middle class. The presence of this class in Lindsay can be seen in the relatively
high level of median family income, compared with the very low proportion of people in professional occupations.
Lindsay is also a mortgage belt seat, with high proportions of families with dependent children and of dwellings
being purchased.
The seat includes the Labor stronghold of St Marys at its eastern end, and Labor also polls well in central
Penrith. But the belt of suburbs around Penrith, such as Emu Heights, Glenmore Park and York, generally vote
Liberal. This makes the seat a finely-balanced marginal which is hotly contested at every election.
Lindsay was held by Labor's
Ross Free, a junior minister in the Keating government, until the 1996 Liberal
landslide, when he was defeated by
Jackie Kelly, a favourite of John Howard and a junior minister in his
government. When she abruptly retired in 2007, and her husband was involved in a scandal involving bogus election leaflets, Labor's
David Bradbury won the seat with a 12% swing. He was a minister in the
Rudd-Gillard government, and was narrowly re-elected in 2010, but in 2013 he was defeated by
Fiona Scott. Scott
was in turn defeated by Labor's
Emma Husar in 2016, as part of Labor's strong showing in western Sydney.
During 2018 Husar was the subject of a series of allegations of personal misconduct, which she strongly denied. In July
she took personal leave, and in August announced that she would not recontest the seat in 2019. After a long delay, Labor
chose former state MP and minister
Diane Beamer as its candidate. Not surprisingly, the Liberals regained the seat on the
back of a 6% swing.
Melissa McIntosh, Liberal MP for Lindsay since 2019, was a staffer for
Jackie Kelly and later for Prime Minister Howard. From 2011 to 2015 she worked at the United States Studies Centre at the University
of Sydney. She was then chief of staff to Assistant Treasurer
Alex Hawke until 2016, when she joined Wentworth Community Housing as executive
manager. She was also Vice-President of the NSW Liberal Party. She is now Shadow Minister for Energy Affordability and Shadow Minister for
Western Sydney. The 2024 redistribution has removed Emu Plains from the seat, slightly reducing the Liberal majority.
Boundaries following most recent redistribution:
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