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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Nicholls, Victoria
Named for: Sir Douglas Nicholls (1906-88) and Lady (Gladys) Nicholls (1906-81), Indigenous rights activists
Northern Victoria: Echuca, Nagambie, Seymour, Shepparton, Yarrawonga
Enrolment at 2019 election: 111,170
Enrolment at 2022 election: 114,386 (+03.0)
1999 republic referendum: No 69.5
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 57.6
2023 Voice referendum: No 75.2
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 18.3% *
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 20.4% *
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 20.9% *
2016 Nationals majority over Liberal: 5.1% *
2019 Nationals majority over Labor 20.0%
2022 Nationals majority over Independent 4.8%
2025 notional Nationals majority over Independent 4.8%
2025 notional Nationals majority over Labor 15.9%
* as Murray
Status: Marginal Nationals (over Independent)
Nationals two-party vote 1983-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Sam Birrell
The Nationals |
Division of Nicholls
Nicholls was created by the 2018 redistribution, when the former seat of
Murray, which was created in 1949, was renamed.
The seat has always occupied the central part of the Murray Valley, based on Shepparton. This is one of the most heavily
agricultural parts of Australia, and also one of the most politically conservative. Murray has always been an ulra-safe seat
for the non-Labor parties. Like most rural seats, it has a low level of median family income, and a low proportion of
people born in non English speaking
countries. The 2018 redistribution expanded the seat southwards to take in Seymour and Broadford, without changing
its political character. It remains unchanged by the 2021 redistribution.
The Murray Valley was one of the birthplaces of the Country Party, and the old seat of
Echuca, which covered much the same
territory, first elected a Country Party member in 1919. The loss of Murray to the Liberals in 1996 was thus a shock, and
a symbol of the decline of the Nationals in Victoria. The Nationals' recovery of Murray in 2016 may be seen as a sign of
a revival of the party's fortunes in regional Victoria.
The first member for Murray was
Sir John McEwen, who was briefly Prime Minister in 1967-68 (McEwen had previously been
member for Echuca and
Indi since 1934). His successor,
Bruce Lloyd, was deputy leader of the Nationals from 1987 to 1993 but never held office.
The last time the seat was vacant, in 1996,
Dr Sharman Stone won it for the
Liberals. Stone was a minister in the Howard Government, but was not included in the
Abbott ministry. She retired in 2016, creating a three-cornered contest. Labor came third and directed its preferences to
the Nationals candidate, Damian Drum, a Geelong footballer,
Fremantle coach and Victorian state minister. Drum was Assistant Minister to the Deputy Prime Minister
(Barnaby Joyce) from 2017 to 2018, when he was dropped after Joyce's demise.
He retired at the 2022 election.
Sam Birrell, Nationals MP for Nicholls since 2022, was an agronomist and CEO of Committee for Greater Shepparton before his election. He defeated challenges from both a Liberal and an independent to hold the seat.
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