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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Deakin, Victoria
Named for: Hon Alfred Deakin (1856-1919), Vic MP 1879, 1880-1900, federal MP 1901-13, Prime Minister 1903-04, 1905-08, 1909-10, Leader of the Opposition 1908-09, 1910-12.
Eastern Melbourne: Croydon, Forest Hill, Mitcham, Ringwood, Vermont
Enrolment at 2019 election: 107,534
Enrolment at 2022 election: 112,455 (+04.7)
1999 republic referendum: Yes 52.9
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 65.7
2023 Voice referendum: No 51.6
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 1.4%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 2.4%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 3.2%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.7%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.8%
2022 Liberal majority over Labor: 0.2%
2025 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 0.0%
Status 2022: Very marginal Liberal
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Hon Michael Sukkar
Liberal Party |
Division of Deakin
Deakin was created in 1937, originally as a rural seat to the north-east of Melbourne, and has gradually been
reduced by successive redistributions to a block of suburbs centered on Croydon and Ringwood. Despite being in the
outer suburbs, it is not a mortgage belt seat: it has an average level of families with dependent children and of
dwellings being purchased. Its higher-than-average level level of over-65s also suggest a stable, ageing population.
Deakin is remarkable for its social and political homogeneity: in all recent elections, the major parties each
polled between 45 and 60% of the two-party vote at nearly every booth. Nevertheless, Labor is somewhat stronger in
the older, western end of the seat, while the Liberals are stronger in Croydon and Ringwood, at the
newer, eastern end, as well as Vermont in the south-west of the seat.
The seat's solidly middle-class, home-owning character has made it politically very stable. Since 1969 it has always
been a marginal seat, but Labor has only held it twice: in 1983, when the veteran Liberal member
Alan Jarman stayed
on too long and lost to Labor's
John Saunderson, and in the Rudd tide of 2007, when Labor's
Mike Symon defeated
the sitting Liberal
Phil Barresi. Symon was re-elected in 2010, but was defeated in the 2013
swing to the Liberals.
Michael Sukkar, Liberal MP for Deakin since 2013, is a lawyer and
tax accountant. He was a senior associate with one of Australia's largest law firms before entering politics. He is of
Lebanese Christian descent. He was appointed Assistant Minister to the Treasurer in January 2017, but was dropped
by Prime Minister Morrison in August 2018, following his role as one of the main organisers of the campaign to
depose Malcolm Turnbull. He was reprieved by Scott Morrison and was Minister for Housing and Minister for Homelessness,
Social and Community Housing *
The 2024 redistribution has removed some Liberal territory around Heathmont, while adding more territory in Blackburn and Mitcham,
slightly improving Labor's position. This has wiped out the Liberal majority from 2022, leaving Deakin as the Liberal Party's most
marginal seat.
* A good example of the recent trend to inflated and meaningless portfolio names.
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