Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive

Adam Carr's Election Archive

Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Blair, Queensland

Named for: Harold Blair (1924-76), Indigenous singer and political activist


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West of Brisbane: Brassall, Ipswich, Karalee, Raceview, Rosewood

Enrolment at 2019 election: 113,520
Enrolment at 2022 election: 126,366 (+11.4)
1999 republic referendum: No 74.6
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.0
2023 Voice referendum: No 70.3


Sitting member: Hon Shayne Neumann (Labor): Elected 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2022


2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.5%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.2%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 5.3%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 9.1%
2019 Labor majority over Liberal: 1.2%
2022 Labor majority over Liberal: 5.2%

Status: Marginal Labor
Labor two-party vote 1998-2022


  • 2022 results
  • Statistics and history

  • Announced candidates:

    Hon Shayne Neumann
    Australian Labor Party

    Division of Blair

    Blair was created in 1998, from parts of the old seats of Oxley and Longman. It was then a largely rural seat which included parts of western Ipswich. Like many rural or semi-rural seats, it combined a relatively low income level with a very low level of non English speaking households, a combination which usually indicates conservatism. Blair attracted national attention at the 1998 election because Pauline Hanson, the extreme right-wing member for Oxley, elected as a disendorsed Liberal in 1996, stood in Blair for her new One Nation party. She topped the poll on primaries, but was defeated on preferences by the Liberal Cameron Thompson.

    Successive redistributions have put all of Ipswich into Blair, reducing its rural component and making it weaker for the Liberals. Labor finally won the seat in 2007, and have held it since. Most votes in Blair are now cast in Ipswich, whose economy was formerly based on coal-mining and which retains a strong manufacturing base. The Western Corridor area between Ipswich and Brisbane is one of the fastest-growing areas in Australia. The 2018 redistribution added some Liberal-inclined territory, slightly reducing the Labor majority. Labor usually wins every booth in Ipswich, leaving the Liberals with only the rural towns such as Kilcoy to the north.

    Shayne Neumann, Labor MP for Blair since 2007, was an Ipswich lawyer before entering politics. He was a parliamentary secretary in the last year of the Rudd-Gillard Government, and a shadow minister in opposition, but did not gain a spot in the Albanese ministry. Neumann survived the heavy swing against Labor in Queensland in 2010, and won swings towards him in 2013 and 2016. But in 2019 he had a narrow escape when Blair saw a 6.9% swing to the Liberals, part of the Labor rout in Queensland, which was particularly severe in blue-collar centres like Ipswich. Some Ipswich booths saw swings as high as 11.7%.

    Neumann is 63 and there are suggestions that he will retire in 2025. Without his personal vote Labor may find it difficult to defnd this seat if there is a swing against the government in Queensland.


    Boundaries following most recent redistribution:



    See full-size map of this Division



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