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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Blair, Queensland
Named for: Harold Blair (1924-76), Indigenous singer and political
activist
West of Brisbane: Brassall, Ipswich, Karalee, Raceview, Rosewood
Enrolment at 2019 election: 113,520
Enrolment at 2022 election: 126,366 (+11.4)
1999 republic referendum: No 74.6
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.0
2023 Voice referendum: No 70.3
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.5%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.2%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 5.3%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 9.1%
2019 Labor majority over Liberal: 1.2%
2022 Labor majority over Liberal: 5.2%
Status: Marginal Labor
Labor two-party vote 1998-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Division of Blair
Blair was created in 1998, from parts of the old seats of
Oxley and
Longman.
It was then a largely rural seat which included
parts of western Ipswich. Like many rural or semi-rural seats, it combined a relatively low income level with a very
low level of non English speaking households, a combination which usually indicates conservatism. Blair
attracted national attention at the 1998 election because
Pauline Hanson, the extreme right-wing member for Oxley,
elected as a disendorsed Liberal in 1996, stood in Blair for her new One Nation party. She topped the poll on
primaries, but was defeated on preferences by the Liberal
Cameron Thompson.
Successive redistributions have put all of Ipswich into Blair, reducing its rural component and making it weaker for the Liberals.
Labor finally won the seat in
2007, and have held it since. Most votes in Blair are now cast in Ipswich, whose economy was formerly based on coal-mining and
which retains a strong manufacturing base. The Western Corridor area between Ipswich and Brisbane is one of the fastest-growing
areas in Australia. The 2018 redistribution added some Liberal-inclined territory, slightly reducing the
Labor majority. Labor usually wins every booth in Ipswich, leaving the Liberals with only the rural towns such as Kilcoy
to the north.
Shayne Neumann, Labor MP for Blair since 2007, was an Ipswich lawyer before entering politics. He was a parliamentary
secretary in the last year of the Rudd-Gillard Government, and a shadow minister in opposition, but did not gain a spot in the Albanese ministry.
Neumann survived the heavy swing against Labor in Queensland in 2010, and won swings towards him in 2013
and 2016. But in 2019 he had a narrow escape when Blair saw a 6.9% swing to the Liberals, part of the Labor rout in
Queensland, which was particularly severe in blue-collar centres like Ipswich. Some Ipswich booths saw swings as high as 11.7%.
Neumann is 63 and there are suggestions that he will retire in 2025. Without his personal vote Labor may find it difficult to defnd this seat if there
is a swing against the government in Queensland.
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