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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Brisbane, Queensland
Named for: City of Brisbane (after Sir Thomas Brisbane (1773-1860),
Governor of NSW 1821-25, the time of the founding of the Moreton Bay
settlement)
Central Brisbane: Ashgrove, Brisbane, Clayfield, Hamilton, Wilston
Enrolment at 2019 election: 115,548
Enrolment at 2022 election: 125,208 (+08.4)
1999 republic referendum: Yes 57.3
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 79.5
2023 Voice referendum: No 56.0
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 6.8%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.1%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.3%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.9%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.9%
2022 Greens majority over Liberal 3.7%
Status: Very marginal Greens
Labor two-party vote 1983-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Stephen Bates
Australian Greens |
Madonna Jarrett
Australian Labor Party |
Division of Brisbane
Brisbane has existed since Federation, and at various times has taken in most of the city north of the Brisbane
River, and sometimes south of it. Since 1949 it has consisted of central Brisbane and the inner suburbs. On the
2007 boundaries, it extended north-west to take in Labor-voting Ashgrove. The 2009 redistribution changed it
substantially, reorienting it to the east to include some of Brisbane's strongest Liberal areas in Clayfield and
Hamilton.
Like most inner-city seats, Brisbane now has a high median income level and a high proportion of people in
professional and managerial occupations, combined with low levels of families with dependent children and of dwellings being
purchased. But its proportion of non English speaking households is surprisingly low for an inner city seat, and
lower than in some other Brisbane-area seats.
Brisbane was once a safe Labor seat:
George Lawson held it for 30 years. But it grew increasingly marginal in the 1970s
and '80s, and was won by the Liberals
in 1975. The increasing cosmopolitanisation of inner city seats improved Labor's position in the 1990s,
and it was one of only two seats retained by Labor in Queensland in the heavy defeat of 1996.
Arch Bevis won Brisbane for Labor in 1990, and was briefly a parliamentary secretary
in the Keating government. In 2010 the less favourable boundaries, combined with the strong reaction in Queensland
to the demise of
Kevin Rudd, produced a big swing that saw Bevis defeated after holding the seat for 20 years.
His Liberal successor,
Teresa Gambaro,
had been MP for Petrie 1996-2007, and a parliamentary secretary in the Howard government. She retired at the
2016 election.
Gambaro was succeeded by Trevor Evans, who was chief executive of the National Retail Association and
chief-of-staff to Immigration Minister Peter Dutton before his election. After the 2019 election he was appointed an Assistant Minister.
He seemed fairly safe against a challenge from Labor, but at the 2022 election he was defeated by the Greens, as part of the Greens' surge in
inner-city Brisbane
Stephen Bates, Greens MP for Brisbane since 2022, has a social science degree and worked as a sales assistant. He is openly gay (as is
Trevor Evans). Both Labor and Liberal will be keep to reclaim this seat in 2025, but experience suggests that Greens' MPs are hard to
dislodge once elected. The Labor candidate will again be Madonna Jarrett, Director at Deloitte Australia.
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