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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Bradfield, New South Wales
Named for: Dr John Bradfield (1867-1943), designer of the Sydney
Harbour Bridge
Northern Sydney: Gordon, Lindfield, St Ives, Wahroonga, Willoughby
Enrolment at 2019 election: 107,366
Enrolment at 2022 election: 108,540 (+01.1)
1999 republic referendum: Yes 55.6
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.6
2023 Voice referendum: Yes 52.1
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Sitting member: Hon Paul Fletcher (Liberal):
Elected 2009 by-election, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2022
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2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 13.4%
2009 by-election Liberal majority over Greens: 14.8%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 18.2%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 20.8%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 21.0%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 16.6%
2022 Liberal majority over Independent: 04.2%
2022 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 6.6%
2025 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 6.4%
Status: Marginal Liberal
2022 results
Statistics and history
Division of Bradfield
Bradfield was created in 1949, occupying the upper-class heartland of Sydney's North Shore, one of the wealthiest areas in
Australia. In later years it expanded somewhat to the north-west, into slightly less aristocratic areas, but it still had the second-highest
median income level of any seat, and the second-highest proportion of people in professional and managerial occupations.
This made Bradfield one of the safest Liberal seats in Australia, although it was overtaken in recent years by neighbouring
Mitchell as the safest of all. Bradfield has become increasingly multi-cultural, with
15% of residents claiming Chinese ancestry, without changing its voting behaviour - until 2022.
The first member for Bradfield was former Prime Minister
Billy Hughes, the longest-serving member of the
Australian Parliament, who had previously been MP for
North Sydney in the same region.
Dr Brendan Nelson, who
won Bradfield in 1996 only three years after leaving the Labor Party, was Defence Minister in the Howard
Government and a short-lived Leader of the Liberal Party after the 2007 election defeat.
Paul Fletcher, Liberal MP for Bradfield since the 2009 by-election which followed Nelson's resignation, was an
adviser to Liberal ministers and Director of Corporate and Regulatory Affairs with Optus before entering
politics. He he became a parliamentary secretary in
2013 and a Cabinet minister in 2020. He is now Shadow Minister for Science and the Arts.
The 2022 election produced the most radical shift in Bradfield's voting behaviour since the seat was created. A "Teal" independent,
Nicolette Boele, cut Fletcher's majority to 4.2%. This also reduced Fletcher's notional majority over Labor to 6.6%, making Bradfield a
marginal seat for the first time. This is consistent with the behaviour of most upper-income urban seats in 2022. It is notable that
Bradfield was the only Coalition-held seat to vote Yes in the Voice to Parliament referendum.
The 2024 redistribution abolished the neighbouring seat of North Sydney, and put a block of suburbs around Artarmon and Willoughby
into Bradfield. Since the "Teal" Kylea Tink won North Sydney in 2022, Fletcher would be very vulnerable if Tink decided to run in Bradfield.
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