Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive

Adam Carr's Election Archive

Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Bradfield, New South Wales

Named for: Dr John Bradfield (1867-1943), designer of the Sydney Harbour Bridge


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Northern Sydney: Gordon, Lindfield, St Ives, Wahroonga, Willoughby

Enrolment at 2019 election: 107,366
Enrolment at 2022 election: 108,540 (+01.1)
1999 republic referendum: Yes 55.6
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.6
2023 Voice referendum: Yes 52.1


Sitting member: Hon Paul Fletcher (Liberal): Elected 2009 by-election, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2022


2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 13.4%
2009 by-election Liberal majority over Greens: 14.8%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 18.2%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 20.8%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 21.0%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 16.6%
2022 Liberal majority over Independent: 04.2%
2022 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 6.6%
2025 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 6.4%

Status: Marginal Liberal

  • 2022 results
  • Statistics and history

  • Announced candidates:

    Nicolette Boele
    Independent
    Hon Paul Fletcher
    Liberal Party

    Division of Bradfield

    Bradfield was created in 1949, occupying the upper-class heartland of Sydney's North Shore, one of the wealthiest areas in Australia. In later years it expanded somewhat to the north-west, into slightly less aristocratic areas, but it still had the second-highest median income level of any seat, and the second-highest proportion of people in professional and managerial occupations. This made Bradfield the safest Liberal seats in Australia, although it has now overtaken by Barker in South Australia. Bradfield has become increasingly multi-cultural, with 15% of residents claiming Chinese ancestry, without changing its voting behaviour - until 2022.

    The first member for Bradfield was former Prime Minister Billy Hughes, the longest-serving member of the Australian Parliament, who had previously been MP for North Sydney in the same region. Dr Brendan Nelson, who won Bradfield in 1996 only three years after leaving the Labor Party, was Defence Minister in the Howard Government and a short-lived Leader of the Liberal Party after the 2007 election defeat.

    Paul Fletcher, Liberal MP for Bradfield since the 2009 by-election which followed Nelson's resignation, was an adviser to Liberal ministers and Director of Corporate and Regulatory Affairs with Optus before entering politics. He he became a parliamentary secretary in 2013 and a Cabinet minister in 2020. He is now Shadow Minister for Science and the Arts.

    The 2022 election produced the most radical shift in Bradfield's voting behaviour since the seat was created. A "Teal" independent, Nicolette Boele, cut Fletcher's majority to 4.2%. This also reduced Fletcher's notional majority over Labor to 6.6%, making Bradfield a marginal seat for the first time. This is consistent with the behaviour of most upper-income urban seats in 2022. It is notable that Bradfield was the only Coalition-held seat to vote Yes in the Voice to Parliament referendum.

    The 2024 redistribution abolished the neighbouring seat of North Sydney, and put a block of suburbs around Artarmon and Willoughby into Bradfield. Since the "Teal" Kylea Tink won North Sydney in 2022, Fletcher will again be vulnerable to a "Teal" in 2025. Nicolette Boele is running again.

    Boundaries following most recent redistribution:



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