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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Dickson, Queensland
Named for: Hon Sir James Dickson (1832-1901), Qld MP 1873-88, 1892-
1901, Premier 1898-99. Member of first federal Cabinet 1901.
Outer northern Brisbane: Albany Creek, Bray Park, Dayboro, Ferny Hills, Kallangur
Enrolment at 2019 election: 108,232
Enrolment at 2022 election: 112,786 (+04.3)
1999 republic referendum: No 58.8
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 65.2
2023 Voice referendum: No 65.4
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Sitting member: Hon Peter Dutton (Liberal): Elected 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2022
Leader of the Opposition
Leader of the Liberal Party
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2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 0.1%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.1%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 6.7%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 2.0%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.6%
2022 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.7%
Status: Very marginal Liberal
Liberal two-party vote 1993-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Hon Peter Dutton
Liberal Party |
Ali France
Australian Labor Party |
Division of Dickson
Dickson was created in 1993, located in Brisbane's fast-growing outer north-western suburbs. It is a classic mortgage belt seat, with levels of
families with dependent children and of dwellings being purchased which are among the country's highest. The seat also has a fairly high level of
median family income, although it has a below-average level of people in professional and managerial occupations.
Dickson has always been politically marginal. Labor's strength is in suburbs in the northern part of the seat, such as Bray Park,
Kallangur and Murrumba Downs, while suburbs further south such as Albany Creek and Eatons Hill, as well as the semi-rural western part of the
seat, are strongly Liberal.
Members for Dickson have included
Michael Lavarch, a minister in the Keating Government, and
Cheryl Kernot, who defected to Labor from the leadership of the
Australian Democrats in 1998. After three years of erratic behaviour she was defeated in 2001, and the seat has remained with the Liberals since,
despite close calls in 2007 and 2022.
Peter Dutton, Liberal MP for Dickson since 2001, was a police officer before his election. He was a junior minister in the last term of the Howard
Government, and was on the opposition front bench from 2007 to 2013. He was so certain he would lose Dickson in 2007 that he tried to shift to the
safe seat of
McPherson, but was rejected. As it turned out, he narrowly retained Dickson. He was Minister for Health and for Sport in the Abbott
Government and later Minister for Immigration and Border Protection. In December 2017 he also made Minister for Home Affairs, in charge of all
national security issues. He was then regarded as
Tony Abbott's successor as leader of the right wing of the Liberal Party, and as a potential leader.
In August 2018, with the backing of Abbott's faction and the Murdoch media, Dutton planned a challenge to Prime Minister
Malcolm Turnbull.
Turnbull pre-empted him by bringing on a party-room vote, which Turnbull narrowly won. Dutton then resigned, followed by a string of his supporters.
This led to Turnbull's resignation, but Dutton was outmanoeuvred by Treasurer
Scott Morrison, who won the subsequent leadership ballot. Dutton was
then re-appointed to Home Affairs, but lost the Immigration portfolio. In March 2021 he was shifted to Defence.
After the defeat of the Morrison government in 2022, Dutton was elected leader of the Liberal Party without opposition, becoming the
first Queenslander to lead the party. This was a
continuation of the Liberal Party's move to the right, which began when Morrison replaced Turnbull. Dutton has made little effort to win back the
urban Liberal voters who defected to the Teals, Labor and the Greens in 2022. Instead he has pinned his hopes on winning suburban and regional seats from Labor. He strongly opposed the 2023 Voice to Parliament referendum. In 2024 he proposed that Australia adopt nuclear power instead of
renewables.
Despite Dutton's high profile, Dickson is still a very marginal seat. Given the intensity of Labor's dislike for Dutton, a lot
of effort will again be put into defeating him in 2025. Labor's candidate will again be Ali France, a journalist, high-profile disability activist and
athlete. She is familiar with politics as the daughter of former state minister Peter Lawler.
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