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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Forde, Queensland
Named for: Rt Hon Frank Forde (1890-1983), Qld MP 1917-22, federal MP
1922-46, Prime Minister 1945, Qld MP 1955-57
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South of Brisbane: Beenleigh, Boronia Heights, Loganholme, Shailer Park, Upper Coomera
Enrolment at 2019 election: 107,272
Enrolment at 2022 election: 119,085 (+11.1)
1999 republic referendum: No 68.7
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.5
2023 Voice referendum: No 71.8
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Sitting member: Bert van Manen (Liberal): Elected 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2022
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2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 2.9%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.6%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.4%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor: 0.6%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor: 8.6%
2022 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.8%
Status: Marginal Liberal
Liberal two-party vote 1984-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Announced candidates:
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Rowan Holzberger
Australian Labor Party |
Bert van Manen
Liberal Party |
Division of Forde
Forde was created in 1984, and was originally located in the southern suburbs of Brisbane. Successive
redistributions have pushed it southwards, and it now has none of its original territory.
On its current boundaries, it is based on outer suburbs such as Shailer Park and Waterford, the satellite town of
Beenleigh and some parts of the Gold Coast hinterland. It was not significantly altered by the 2018
redistribution.
The suburban parts of Forde are mortgage belt territory, with high levels of families with dependent children
and of dwellings being purchased, and with the usual low level of people in professional occupations. Labor has some
strong areas in Beenleigh and along the northern edge of the seat in Loganlea and Marsden, while the Liberals dominate
the semi-rural areas to the south.
Forde has not been a safe seat for any of its five previous members.
Kay Elson held it for the Liberals during
the 11 years of the Howard government before retiring in 2007. She was succeeded by
Brett Raguse, who gained a very
big swing. In 2010, the sharp swing against Labor that followed the demise of
Kevin Rudd saw Raguse defeated by
Bert van Manen. Van Manen was comfortably re-elected in 2013, despite Labor running former Premier
Peter Beattie
as its candidate, but only narrowly re-elected in 2016. In 2019 he scored a big swing, and his majority was only slightly reduced in 2022.
Bert van Manen, Liberal MP for Forde since 2010, was a bank officer and financial
adviser before being elected. He has been one of the most inconspicuous backbenchers in Canberra. The Labor candidate is again Rowan Holzberger, an
electorate officer for Senator Murray Watt.
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