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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2025
Division of Casey, Victoria
Named for: Rt Hon Richard Casey (Baron Casey) (1890-1976), federal MP
1931-40, 1949-60, Governor-General 1965-69
Outer eastern Melbourne: Belgrave, Lilydale, Monbulk, Mooroolbark, Warburton
Enrolment at 2019 election: 113,324
Enrolment at 2022 election: 114,277 (+00.9)
1999 republic referendum: No 54.5
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 68.1
2023 Voice referendum: No 57.6
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.9%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.2%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 7.2%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor 6.1%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor 4.6%
2022 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.5%
2025 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 1.4%
Status 2022: Very marginal Liberal
Labor two-party vote 1983-2022
2022 results
Statistics and history
Division of Casey
Casey was created in 1969, taking in a stretch of Melbourne's new and fast-growing outer north-eastern suburbs.
During the Whitlam years Casey was the classic "litmus" seat, where Whitlam's appeal to suburban voters on issues
like schools and sewerage had the greatest impact. Since the 1980s, however, this area has become increasingly
wealthy, and voters are more concerned about interest rates - Casey has among the highest levels of traditional
families with children, and of people paying mortgages, of any electorate. Casey also has the highest level of
people working in manufacturing and construction (35.9%) of any seat in Australia. The Liberals dominate in the more
heavily suburban parts of the seat around Lilydale and Mooroolbark, while Labor retains some strength in the Dandenong Ranges
part of the seat.
Tony Smith won Casey for the Liberals in 2001.
He was a parliamentary secretary in the last year of the Howard Government, and was on the opposition front bench from 2007 and 2009.
In August 2015 he was elected Speaker after the resignation of
Bronwyn Bishop, and successfully restored the standing of the
speakership after her inglorious departure. Smith retired at the 2022 election.
The 2018 redistribution removed Croydon, a strongly Liberal suburb, while adding Labor-inclined
Belgrave and Upwey. These changes made Casey a more marginal seat, but it would still require a substantial
swing to Labor in Victoria for the Liberals to be in danger. The 2024 redistribution has made only minor changes.
Aaron Violi, Liberal MP for Casey since 2022, was a manager with a food services company and a former staffer
to Senator James Patterson before his election. He has an MBA from La Trobe University.
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