Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive

Psephos: Adam Carr's Election Archive
Australian federal election 2022

List of seats in pendulum order

The margins shown here are as calculated by Antony Green.

See these seats in alphabetical order



Very safe Liberal/National (majority over 16%)

  • Maranoa, Qld (Nationals over Labor 25.4%)
  • Groom, Qld (Liberal over Labor 20.5%)
  • Nicholls, Vic (Nationals over Labor 20.0%)
  • Farrer, NSW (Liberal over Labor 19.8%) [1]
  • Riverina, NSW (Nationals over Labor 19.5%)
  • Cook, NSW (Liberal over Labor 19.0%)
  • Barker, SA (Liberal over Labor 18.9%)
  • Mitchell, NSW (Liberal over Labor 18.6%)
  • New England, NSW (Nationals over Labor 17.6%) [2]
  • Parkes, NSW (Nationals over Labor 16.9%)
  • Gippsland, Vic (Nationals over Labor 16.7%)
  • Bradfield, NSW (Liberal over Labor 16.6%)

  • Safe Liberal/National (majority 12-16%)

  • Mallee, Vic (Nationals over Labor 15.7%)
  • Berowra, NSW (Liberal over Labor 15.6%)
  • Moncrieff, Qld (Liberal over Labor 15.4%)
  • O'Connor, WA (Liberal over Labor 15.4%)
  • Lyne, NSW (Nationals over Labor 15.2%)
  • Dawson, Qld (Nationals over Labor 14.6%)
  • Forrest, WA (Liberal over Labor 14.6%)
  • Wright, Qld (Liberal over Labor 14.6%)
  • Hinkler, Qld (Nationals over Labor 14.5%)
  • Fadden, Qld (Liberal over Labor 14.2%)
  • Curtin, WA (Liberal over Labor 13.9%)
  • Durack, WA (Liberal over Labor 13.5%)
  • Fairfax, Qld (Liberal over Labor 13.4%)
  • Calare, NSW (Nationals over Labor 13.3%)
  • Grey, SA (Liberal over Labor 13.3%)
  • Mackellar, NSW (Liberal over Labor 13.2%)
  • Wide Bay, Qld (Nationals over Labor 13.1%)
  • Hume, NSW (Liberal over Labor 13.0%)
  • Fisher, Qld (Liberal over Labor 12.7%)
  • Capricornia, Qld (Nationals over Labor 12.4%)
  • McPherson, Qld (Liberal over Labor 12.2%)

  • Fairly safe Liberal/National (majority 8-12%)

  • Cowper, NSW (Nationals over Labor 11.9%) [3]
  • Canning, WA (Liberal over Labor 11.6%)
  • Moore, WA (Liberal over Labor 11.6%)
  • Bowman, Qld (Liberal over Labor 10.2%)
  • Wannon, Vic (Liberal over Labor 10.2%)
  • Aston, Vic (Liberal over Labor 10.1%)
  • Wentworth, NSW (Liberal over Labor 9.8%) [4]
  • Hughes, NSW (Liberal over Labor 9.8%)
  • Tangney, WA (Liberal over Labor 9.5%)
  • Page, NSW (National over Labor 9.4%)
  • North Sydney, NSW (Liberal over Labor 9.3%)
  • Flynn, Qld (Nationals over Labor 8.7%)
  • Forde, Qld (Liberal over Labor 8.6%)
  • Herbert, Qld (Liberal over Labor 8.4%)
  • Petrie, Qld (Liberal over Labor 8.4%)

  • Marginal Liberal/National (majority 4-8%)

  • Goldstein, Vic (Liberal over Labor 7.8%)
  • Bonner, Qld (Liberal over Labor 7.4%)
  • Menzies, Vic (Liberal over Labor 7.0%)
  • Bennelong, NSW (Liberal over Labor 6.9%)
  • Monash, Vic (Liberal over Labor 6.9%)
  • Sturt, SA (Liberal over Labor 6.9%)
  • Kooyong, Vic (Liberal over Labor 6.4%) [5]
  • Banks, NSW (Liberal over Labor 6.3%)
  • Ryan, Qld (Liberal over Labor 6.0%)
  • Hasluck, WA (Liberal over Labor 5.9%)
  • Flinders, Vic (Liberal over Labor 5.5%)
  • La Trobe, Vic (Liberal over Labor 5.5%)
  • Pearce, WA (Liberal over Labor 5.2%)
  • Lindsay, NSW (Liberal over Labor 5.0%)
  • Brisbane, Qld (Liberal over Labor 4.9%)
  • Deakin, Vic (Liberal over Labor 4.7%)
  • Casey, Vic (Liberal over Labor 4.6%)
  • Dickson, Qld (Liberal over Labor 4.6%)
  • Leichhardt, Qld (Liberal over Labor 4.2%)
  • Robertson, NSW (Liberal over Labor 4.2%)

  • Very marginal Liberal/National (majority below 4%)

  • Higgins, Vic (Liberal over Labor 3.7%)
  • Swing needed for Labor majority: 3.3%


  • Longman, Qld (Liberal over Labor 3.3%)
  • Reid, NSW (Liberal over Labor 3.2%)
  • Swan, WA (Liberal over Labor 3.2%)
  • Braddon, Tas (Liberal over Labor 3.1%)
  • Boothby, SA (Liberal over Labor 1.4%)
  • Chisholm, Vic (Liberal over Labor 0.5%)
  • Bass, Tas (Liberal over Labor 0.4%)



  • Very marginal Labor (majority below 4%)

  • Macquarie, NSW (Labor over Liberal 0.2%)
  • Lilley, Qld (Labor over Liberal 0.6%)
  • Eden-Monaro, NSW (Labor over Liberal 0.8%)
  • Cowan, WA (Labor over Liberal 0.9%)
  • Corangamite, Vic (Labor over Liberal 1.0%)
  • Blair, Qld (Labor over Liberal 1.2%)
  • Dobell, NSW (Labor over Liberal 1.5%)
  • Moreton, Qld (Labor over Liberal 1.9%)
  • Gilmore, NSW (Labor over Liberal 2.6%)
  • Dunkley, Vic (Labor over Liberal 2.7%)
  • Greenway, NSW (Labor over Liberal 2.8%)
  • Griffith, Qld (Labor over Liberal 2.9%)
  • Hunter, NSW (Labor over Liberal 3.0%)
  • Solomon, NT (Labor over CLP 3.1%)
  • Perth, WA (Labor over Liberal 3.2%)
  • Parramatta, NSW (Labor over Liberal 3.5%)

  • Marginal Labor (majority 4-8%)

  • Richmond, NSW (Labor over Nationals 4.1%)
  • Shortland, NSW (Labor over Liberal 4.4%)
  • Paterson, NSW (Labor over Liberal 5.0%)
  • Lyons, Tas (Labor over Liberal 5.2%)
  • McEwen, Vic (Labor over Liberal 5.3)
  • Burt, WA (Labor over Liberal 5.5%)
  • Lingiari, NT (Labor over CLP 5.5%)
  • Werriwa, NSW (Labor over Liberal 5.5%)
  • Jagajaga, Vic (Labor over Liberal 5.9%)
  • Macnamara, Vic (Labor over Liberal 6.1%)
  • Isaacs, Vic (Labor over Liberal 6.4%)
  • Oxley, Qld (Labor over Liberal 6.4%)
  • Rankin, Qld (Labor over Liberal 6.4%)
  • Hindmarsh, SA (Labor over Liberal 6.5%)
  • McMahon, NSW (Labor over Liberal 6.6%)
  • Brand, WA (Labor over Liberal 6.7%)
  • Fremantle, WA (Labor over Liberal 6.9%)
  • Bruce, Vic (Labor over Liberal 7.3%)
  • Bean, ACT (Labor over Liberal 7.5%)

  • Fairly safe Labor (majority 8-12%)

  • Adelaide, SA (Labor over Liberal 8.2%)
  • Macarthur, NSW (Labor over Liberal 8.4%)
  • Kingsford Smith, NSW (Labor over Liberal 8.8%)
  • Bendigo, Vic (Labor over Liberal 9.0%)
  • Holt, Vic (Labor over Liberal 8.9%)
  • Barton, NSW (Labor over Liberal 9.4%)
  • Makin, SA (Labor over Liberal 9.7%)
  • Hawke, Vic (Labor over Liberal 10.2%)
  • Ballarat, Vic (Labor over Liberal 10.3%)
  • Corio, Vic (Labor over Liberal 10.3%)
  • Maribyrnong, Vic (Labor over Liberal 10.3%)
  • Fenner, ACT (Labor over Liberal 10.6%)
  • Whitlam, NSW (Labor over Liberal 10.9%)
  • Hotham, Vic (Labor over Liberal 11.2%)
  • Kingston, SA (Labor over Liberal 11.9%)

  • Safe Labor (majority 12-16%)

  • Franklin, Tas (Labor over Liberal 12.2%)
  • Chifley, NSW (Labor over Liberal 12.4%)
  • Lalor, Vic (Labor over Liberal 12.4%)
  • Gellibrand, Vic (Labor over Liberal 13.0%)
  • Cunningham, NSW (Labor over Liberal 13.4%)
  • Watson, NSW (Labor over Liberal 13.5%)
  • Newcastle, NSW (Labor over Liberal 13.8%)
  • Fowler, NSW (Labor over Liberal 14.0%)
  • Spence, SA (Labor over Liberal 14.1%)
  • Gorton, Vic (Labor over Liberal 14.3%)
  • Blaxland, NSW (Labor over Liberal 14.7%)

  • Very safe Labor (majority over 16%)

  • Canberra, ACT (Labor over Liberal 17.1%)
  • Fraser, Vic (Labor over Liberal 18.1%)
  • Sydney, NSW (Labor over Liberal 18.7%)
  • Calwell, Vic (Labor over Liberal 19.6%)
  • Scullin, Vic (Labor over Liberal 21.7%)
  • Grayndler, NSW (Labor over Liberal 23.8%) [6]
  • Wills, Vic (Labor over Liberal 25.9%) [7]
  • Cooper, Vic (Labor over Liberal 26.3%) [8]


  • Non-two-party seats

  • Clark, Tas (Independent over Labor 22.1%)
  • Indi, Vic (Independent over Liberal 1.4%)
  • Kennedy, Qld (KAP over Nationals 13.3%)
  • Mayo, SA (CA over Liberal 5.1%)
  • Melbourne, Vic (Greens over Liberal 21.8%)
  • Warringah, NSW (Independent over Liberal 7.2%)

  • [1] Actual two-candidate majority: Liberal over Independent 10.9%
    [2] Actual two-candidate majority: Nationals over Independent 14.4%
    [3] Actual two-candidate majority: Nationals over Independent 6.8%
    [4] Actual two-candidate majority: Liberal over Independent 1.3%
    [5] Actual two-candidate majority: Liberal over Greens 5.7%
    [6] Actual two-candidate majority: Labor over Greens 16.3%
    [7] Actual two-candidate majority: Labor over Greens 8.2%
    [8] Actual two-candidate majority: Labor over Greens 14.6%

  • Back to main page