Psephos - Adam Carr's Election Archive

Adam Carr's Election Archive

Australian federal election, 2022
Division of McEwen, Victoria

Named for: Rt Hon Sir John McEwen (1900-80), federal MP 1934-71, Prime Minister 1967-68


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North of Melbourne: Diamond Creek, Gisborne, Kilmore, Wallan, Whittlesea
State seats: Parts of Eildon, Euroa, Macedon, Sunbury, Thomastown and Yan Yean
Local government areas: Parts of Macedon Ranges, Mitchell, Nillumbik and Whittlesea
Borders with: Ballarat, Bendigo, Calwell, Casey, Hawke, Indi, Jagajaga, Menzies and Scullin
Enrolment at 2019 election: 108,064
Enrolment at 2022 election: 108,089 (+00.0)

1999 republic referendum: No 55.5
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 65.4


Sitting member: Rob Mitchell (Labor): Elected 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019

2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 0.0%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 5.3%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 0.2%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 7.8%
2019 Labor majority over Liberal: 5.0%
2019 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 5.3%

Liberal two-party vote 1983-2019

Status: Marginal Labor

Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Mount Ridley North (78.6), Mernda Central (73.7), Woodend East (70.4), Mernda Park (67.4), Mernda (67.2)
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Bolinda (59.7), Yarrambat (57.9), Donnybrook (56.6), Bullengarook (54.1), Darraweit Guim (52.9)


  • 2019 results
  • Statistics and history

  • Candidates in ballot-paper order:

    1. Neil Barker
    Australian Greens
    2. Paul McRae
    United Australia Party
    3. Christopher Neil
    Australian Federation Party
    4. Chris Bradbury
    Pauline Hanson's One Nation
    5. John Herron
    Liberal Democrats
    6. Richard Welch
    Liberal Party
    7. Rob Mitchell
    Australian Labor Party

    Candidate websites:

    Neil Barker
    Chris Bradbury
    John Herron
    Paul McRae
    Rob Mitchell
    Christopher Neil
    Richard Welch

    Division of McEwen

    McEwen was created in 1984, covering an expanse of rural Victoria north and north-east of Melbourne, as well as some fast-growing outer suburbs. Although most of its area is semi-rural, it has the social characteristsics of an outer-suburban mortgage belt seat - a high proportions of families with dependent children and of dwellings being purchased, and a low level of people in non English speaking households. The seat has always been politically marginal, with its orientation usually being determined by which suburbs are included at each successive redistribution. The 2010 redistribution, by adding the strongly Labor-voting suburb of Craigieburn, tipped the seat towards Labor. The 2018 redistribution removed Craigieburn, but also removed rural areas around Seymour. The result was to reduce the Labor majority slightly. The 2021 redistribution has added an area around Diamond Creek, slightly improving the seat for Labor.

    Fran Bailey, who held McEwen for the Liberals for most of the 1990s, was a junior minister in the Howard Government and well-regarded locally. As a result she was able, by the narrowest of margins, to retain the seat in 2007. When she retired in 2010, the seat was won by Labor. There was a swing back to the Liberals in 2013, but in 2016, aided by a poor Liberal candidate, Labor secured a swing of 7.6%. There was no significant swing in 2019.

    Rob Mitchell, Labor MP for McEwen since 2010, was variously a boot-maker, tow-truck operator and sales manager before entering politics. In 2002 he unexpectedly won the Victorian Legislative Council seat of Central Highlands, which he held until 2006. He narrowly failed to win McEwen in 2007, won it in 2010, and narrowly retained it in 2013. He was elected Second Deputy Speaker in 2013, and will probably become Speaker if Labor wins the 2022 election. The Liberal candidate is Richard Welch, a former company CEO with an MBA from Imperial College, London. The Greens candidate is again Neil Barker, an agricultural scientist.

    Demographics:

    Median weekly household income: $1,613 (Australia $1,438)
    People over 65: 10.6% (Australia 15.8%)
    Australian born: 72.7% (Australia 66.7%)
    Ancestry: Italian 5.9%
    Non-English-speaking households: 22.3% (Australia 22.2%)
    Catholics 28.7% (Australia 22.6%)
    No religion 28.4% (Australia 29.6%)
    University graduates: 16.7% (Australia 22.0%)
    Professional and managerial employment: 27.8% (Australia 35.2%)
    Employed in manufacturing and construction: 31.0% (Australia 22.9%)
    Paying a mortgage: 51.6% (Australia 34.5%)
    Renting: 21.1% (Australia 30.9%)
    Traditional families: 44.5% (Australia 32.8%)



    Gallery of Members for McEwen



    Boundaries following most recent redistribution:



    See full-size map of this Division



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