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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2022
Division of Paterson, New South Wales
Named for: A B "Banjo" Paterson (1864-1941), poet and author
North central New South Wales: Kurri Kurri, Maitland, Neith, Nelson Bay, Raymond Terrace
State seats: Parts of
Cessnock,
Maitland,
Newcastle,
Port Stephens and
Wallsend
Local government areas: Parts of
Cessnock,
Maitland and
Port Stephens
Borders with:
Hunter,
Lyne and
Newcastle
Enrolment at 2019 election: 122,941
Enrolment at 2022 election: 132,123 (+07.5)
1999 republic referendum: No 60.3
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 65.5
Sitting member: Meryl Swanson (Labor):
Elected 2016, 2019
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 1.5%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.3%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 9.8%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 10.7%
2019 Labor majority over Liberal: 5.0%
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2019
Status: Marginal Labor
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Woodberry (70.5), Kurri Kurri North (68.2), Kurri Kurri (66.6), Telarah (66.5),
Metford (66.1)
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Corlette (60.2), Nelson Bay PPVC (59.4), Soldiers Point (57.2),
Salamander Bay (57.1), Millers Forest (56.3)
2019 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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 |
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1. Neil Turner
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
2. Brooke Vitnell
Liberal Party |
3. Meryl Swanson
Australian Labor Party |
4. Angela Ketas
Informed Medical Opinions |
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 |
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5. Louise Ihlein
Australian Greens |
6. Sonia Bailey
Liberal Democrats |
7. Jason Olbourne
United Australia Party |
Candidate websites:
Sonia Bailey
Louise Ihlein
Angela Ketas
Jason Olbourne
Meryl Swanson
Neil Turner
Brooke Vitnell
Division of Paterson
Paterson was created in 1949, based on Maitland and the more rural parts of the Hunter region. It was
usually a safe Liberal or Country Party seat, although Labor came close in 1972 and 1974. The seat was
abolished in 1984, but reincarnated on much the same boundaries in 1993. Like most regional seats, Paterson
has a low level of median family income, a low proportion of people in professional and managerial occupations and a low
proportion of non English speaking households. Its ageing population is shown by its high
level of people over 65 and its low level of families with dependent children.
Bob Baldwin won Paterson for the Liberals in 1996, lost it to
Bob Horne in 1998 and regained it in 2001. He
was a Parliamentary Secretary in both the Howard and Abbott Governments, and retired in 2016.
The 2016 redistribution radically changed this seat, cutting out all the rural areas and adding Labor-voting
territory from
Hunter and
Newcastle,
particularly the Labor bastion of Kurri Kurri, plus all of Maitland,
which was previously divided between Paterson and Hunter. What Liberal strength remains is in the Port
Stephens area, which has many affluent residents and retirees. The result was to turn a Liberal majority
of 9.8% into a Labor majority of 0.4%. This plus the loss of Baldwin's personal vote made Paterson a certain
Labor gain in 2016.
Meryl Swanson, Labor MP for Paterson since 2016, had the additional advantage of already being well-known
in the Hunter as a local radio host for 12 years. She was also executive director of Hunter Tourism and a staffer
for Joel Fitzgibbon MP. She has been Shadow Assistant Minister for Defence since August 2020.
Although Swanson gained a large majority for Labor on the new boundaries in 2016, she lost half of it in the
swing to the Coalition in the Hunter region in 2019. This is again a marginal seat and could be lost if Labor's support
in the region continues to erode. The Liberal candidate is Brooke Vitnell, a family law solicitor. The Greens candidate
is Louise Ihlein, a retired nurse.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,236 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 18.5% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 5.5% (Australia 2.8%)
Australian born: 84.1% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 5.2% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 23.6% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 25.4% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 10.5% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 23.7% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 26.4% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 33.9% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 29.1% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 30.6% (Australia 32.8%)
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