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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2022
Division of Casey, Victoria
Named for: Rt Hon Richard Casey (Baron Casey) (1890-1976), federal MP
1931-40, 1949-60, Governor-General 1965-69
Outer eastern Melbourne: Belgrave, Lilydale, Monbulk, Mooroolbark, Warburton
State seats: All of
Evelyn, parts of
Croydon,
Eildon,
Monbulk and
Warrandyte
Local government areas: All of
Yarra Ranges, part of
Cardinia
Borders with:
Aston,
Bruce,
Deakin,
Indi,
La Trobe,
McEwen,
Menzies and
Monash
Enrolment at 2019 election: 113,324
Enrolment at 2022 election: 114,385 (+00.9)
1999 republic referendum: No 54.5
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 68.1
Sitting member: Hon Tony Smith (Liberal):
Elected 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019. Retiring 2022
2007 Liberal majority over Labor: 5.9%
2010 Liberal majority over Labor: 4.2%
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 7.2%
2016 Liberal majority over Labor 6.1%
2019 Liberal majority over Labor 4.6%
2019 notional Liberal majority over Labor: 4.6%
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2019
Status: Marginal Liberal
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Gruyere (67.8), Wandin Yallock (65.5), Dixons Creek (65.4),
Silvan (64.1), Lilydale PPVC (63.4)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Belgrave (70.7), The Patch (69.6), Selby (68.4), Kallista (66.9),
Warburton (66.3)
2016 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Jenny Game
Australian Greens |
2. Craig Cole
Independent |
3. Andrew Klop
Animal Justice Party |
4. Aaron Violi
Liberal Party |
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5. Bill Brindle
Australian Labor Party |
6. Paul Murphy
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
7. Chris Field
Australian Federation Party |
8. Trevor Smith
Liberal Democrats |
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9. Peter Sullivan
Derryn Hinch's Justice Party |
10. Anthony Bellve
United Australia Party |
11. Claire Ferres Miles
Voices of Casey |
Candidate websites:
Anthony Bellve
Bill Brindle
Craig Cole
Claire Ferres Miles
Chris Field
Jenny Game
Andrew Klop
Paul Murphy
Trevor Smith
Peter Sullivan
Aaron Violi
Division of Casey
Casey was created in 1969, taking in a stretch of Melbourne's new and fast-growing outer north-eastern suburbs.
During the Whitlam years Casey was the classic "litmus" seat, where Whitlam's appeal to suburban voters on issues
like schools and sewerage had the greatest impact. Since the 1980s, however, this area has become increasingly
wealthy, and voters are more concerned about interest rates - Casey has among the highest levels of traditional
families with children, and of people paying mortgages, of any electorate. Casey also has the highest level of
people working in manufacturing and construction (35.9%) of any seat in Australia. The Liberals dominate in the more
heavily suburban parts of the seat around Lilydale and Mooroolbark, while Labor retains some strength in the Dandenong Ranges
part of the seat.
Tony Smith, Liberal MP for Casey since 2001, worked at the Institute of Public Affairs, a Liberal think-tank,
and as an adviser to
Peter Costello, before his election. He was a parliamentary secretary in the last year of
the Howard Government, and was on the opposition front bench from 2007 and 2009. But his career stalled with the
departure of his patron Cosetllo, and he was not included in the Abbott ministry. In August 2015 he was elected
Speaker after the resignation of
Bronwyn Bishop, and successfully restored the standing of the
speakership after her inglorious departure.
The 2018 redistribution removed Croydon, a strongly Liberal suburb, while adding Labor-inclined
Belgrave and Upwey. These changes have made Casey a more marginal seat, but it would still require a substantial
swing to Labor in Victoria for the Liberals to be in danger. In July 2021 Smith announced that he would retire
at the coming election. Over 20 years he built up a substantial personal vote, and his departure makes the
seat more risky for the Liberals. The new Liberal candidate is Aaron Violi, a manager with a food services company and a former staffer
to Senator James Patterson. The Labor candidate is again Bill Brindle, a small business owner. The Greens
candidate is again Jenny Game, who lectures in music and cultural studies.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $1,472 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 15.9% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 77.7% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 10.7% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 19.0% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 40.5% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 15.9% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 28.8% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 35.9% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 2.6% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 47.1% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 15.9% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 37.1% (Australia 32.8%)
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