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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2022
Division of Page, New South Wales
Named for: Rt Hon Sir Earle Page (1880-1961), federal MP 1919-61,
Leader of the Country Party 1921-39, Prime Minister 1939.
Northern New South Wales: Casino, Glenreagh, Grafton, Kyogle, Lismore
State seats: All of
Clarence, parts of
Ballina,
Coffs Harbour and
Lismore
Local government areas: All of
Clarence Valley,
Kyogle,
Lismore and
Richmond Valley, parts of
Ballina and
Coffs Harbour
Borders with:
Cowper,
New England,
Richmond and
Wright
Enrolment at 2019 election: 122,833
Enrolment at 2022 election: 122,915 (+00.1)
1999 republic referendum: No 61.2
2018 same-sex marriage survey: Yes 60.0
Sitting member: Hon Kevin Hogan (Nationals):
Elected 2013, 2016, 2019
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 2.4%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.2%
2013 Nationals majority over Labor: 2.5%
2016 Nationals majority over Labor: 2.3%
2019 Nationals majority over Labor: 9.4%
Nationals two-party vote 1983-2019
Status: Fairly safe Nationals
Best Nationals booths, two-party vote: Clovass (82.2), Fairy Hill (77.2), Whiporie (74.0), Casino South (73.3),
Ulmarra (73.1)
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Nimbin (86.2), Rosebank (79.3), Jiggi (77.6), The Channon (77.2), Cawongla (76.8)
2019 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Thomas Searles
Liberal Democrats |
2. Donna Pike
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
3. Kashmir Miller
Australian Greens |
4. Heather Smith
Australian Federation Party |
5. Brett Duroux
Indigenous-Aboriginal Party |
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6. Ian Williamson
United Australia Party |
7. Patrick Deegan
Australian Labor Party |
8. Hon Kevin Hogan
The Nationals |
9. Dr Hanabeth Luke
Independent |
10. Serge Killingbeck
The New Liberals |
Candidate websites:
Patrick Deegan
Brett Duroux
Hon Kevin Hogan
Serge Killingbeck
Dr Hanabeth Luke
Kashmir Miller
Thomas Searles
Heather Smith
Ian Williamson
Division of Page
Page was created in 1984 from parts of the federation electorates of
Richmond and
Cowper, and based on the
regional centres of Grafton and Lismore. It has one of the country's lowest levels of median family income,
reflecting its economic base of farming and low-wage tourism jobs, plus its large population of retired
over-65s. Its ageing population is also shown by its low levels of families with dependent children and of
dwellings being purchased. These factors make Page more politically marginal than most rural seats are these
days.
Labor's strongest area is the city of Lismore, where Labor won all of the polling places in 2019, and which elects a
Labor state member. Grafton
and Casino are more marginal. The Nationals win most of the smaller rural centres, but Labor and the Greens dominate the
alternative lifestyle area around Nimbin.
Page's first member was
Ian Robinson, a National Party veteran who had held Cowper since 1963. Like many country
members, he stayed on too long, and in 1990 he was unexpectedly defeated by Labor's
Harry Woods, who was greatly
helped by the aftermath of the National Party's "Joh for Canberra" fiasco. Woods hung on in 1993, but was predictably
defeated in 1996 by the Nationals candidate, former state minister
Ian Causley. Causley had reasonable expectations
of ministerial office in the Howard Government, but was disappointed, and retired in 2007.
The seat was then won
by Labor's
Janelle Saffin, a teacher and lawyer and former NSW MLC. Saffin was re-elected in 2010 but defeated
by the Nationals in 2013. The 2016 redistribution removed
the Labor-inclined town of Ballina and added more rural areas to the south, increasing the Nationals majority and helping
Hogan defeat an attempt by Saffin to regain the seat at the 2016 election. There was a substantial swing to the Nationals
in 2019, removing Page from the marginal seat category.
Kevin Hogan, Nationals MP for Page since 2013, was a teacher in Casino before his election. He has also worked as a
money market and bond trader and as an investment officer for a superannuation fund. In February 2020 he was
appointed Assistant Minister to the Deputy Prime Minister. The Labor candidate will again be Patrick Deegan,
described as "a social welfare professional." The Greens candidate is Kashmir Miller, a student.
Demographics:
Median weekly household income: $998 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 22.0% (Australia 15.8%)
Indigenous: 5.5% (Australia 2.8%)
Australian born: 82.5% (Australia 66.7%)
Non-English-speaking households: 5.0% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 20.6% (Australia 22.6%)
No religion 29.0% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 13.1% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 29.8% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 23.9% (Australia 22.9%)
Employed in agriculture: 10.8% (Australia 3.3%)
Paying a mortgage: 29.3% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 26.1% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 24.7% (Australia 32.8%)
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